Badenoch takes over a party in ruins

Kemi Badenoch became Conservative leader in 2024 after the party suffered its worst general election result in history. She heads into party conference with some reasons for optimism.

Her personal ratings have improved sharply

YouGov polling last month found thirty-two percent of voters view Badenoch favorably, compared to forty-seven percent unfavorably. That net rating of minus fifteen is twenty points higher than a year ago.

No internal rivals threaten her position

Robert Jenrick, who narrowly lost the 2024 leadership race to Badenoch, defected to Reform UK earlier this year. A Tory adviser said the mood going into conference is very good compared to last year.

“Compared to last year when lots of people were sharpening their knives to bring Kemi down, going into this conference the mood is actually very good.”

Reform UK has stumbled badly

Reform UK enjoyed strong results at May's local elections, but Nigel Farage has faced months of scrutiny about party finances and spent the summer campaigning in a self-imposed by-election.

Farage failed to declare a major donation

Farage was widely criticized for failing to declare a five million pound gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne in the twelve months before he became an MP.

Badenoch reshuffles her top team

Badenoch replaced Mel Stride as shadow chancellor with Andrew Griffith, who spent decades in business before working for Boris Johnson. She moved Priti Patel from shadow foreign secretary in favor of Tom Tugendhat.

Burnham's pension plan opens an attack line

Labour leader Andy Burnham vowed to reform the triple lock, which guarantees generous annual state pension rises. Badenoch attacked the proposal, saying it will not generate enough savings and means more tax rises are inevitable.

“His proposal to change the triple lock is already falling apart under scrutiny, and it won't generate enough savings to fund a nationalized care system for another two decades, which means more tax rises are inevitable.”

Tories still lag badly in national polls

Despite Badenoch's improved personal ratings, the Conservatives remain third in POLITICO's Poll of Polls, hovering around eighteen to nineteen percent. They are still polling lower than the twenty-three point seven percent vote share Rishi Sunak achieved in 2024.

A split right-wing vote could help Labour

Reform UK remains a national contender. Both parties have insisted there will be no electoral alliance, with the Tories arguing it is impossible to work with Reform UK because of Farage's history of falling out with allies.

Brexit divisions threaten to resurface

Andy Burnham made closer relations with the European Union a key part of his conference pitch, thrusting the issue back into British political discourse. The Tories have spent decades divided over the EU.

Voters believe Brexit has not gone well

Polling shows many voters believe Brexit, which the Tories presided over, has not gone well. The Conservatives may now be forced to defend a project they had largely moved on from.