Burnham sets a trap

Andy Burnham, Labour leader, has used his first conference speech to propose overhauling social care by changing state pension protections. The Conservatives are considering avoiding their own detailed plan.

The Tory strategy

Three members of Kemi Badenoch's shadow Cabinet said the party could opt not to unveil a major care offer by the next election, hoping Labour's proposals fall apart instead.

History repeats

One opposition frontbencher noted that in 2017, Labour had nothing on social care and benefited when Theresa May's reform plans were ditched mid-election campaign after public backlash.

“I remind you that in 2017, Labour had nothing on social care, and they were the beneficiaries of our disaster.”

The problem everyone sees

There is wide political consensus that England's status quo on adult social care is awful. Care can be inadequate and costly, and family homes are sold off to fund essential help.

Burnham's proposal

Burnham proposed weakening the third prong of the pension triple lock after the next general election, due by 2029, to save an estimated fifteen billion pounds a year by 2040.

The triple lock divides Tories

The triple lock on pensions, introduced by Conservatives in 2011, is sacrosanct to many. But Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat have both publicly suggested maintaining it is unsustainable.

Hunt and Tugendhat's positions

Hunt said he would vote with the Tories because he wants to reduce borrowing but does not see Labour's more expensive proposal as a remedy. Tugendhat is expected to swallow his opposition.

The Tory counter-strategy

The Conservative strategy is to downplay the purported savings from triple lock changes and insist they can find billions by reducing the working age welfare bill instead.

No plan is still a plan

Some shadow Cabinet members argue the Tories could duck the election without their own distinct plan to change social care. But others say the party needs to offer something on all big issues.

“No policy is still a policy.”

A battle over the state's role

The fight opens a sharp dividing line between Labour under Burnham, promising greater public control, and the Tories under Badenoch, a self-declared classic old-school Conservative who wants a smaller state.