Europe's peace negotiator problem

Europe wanted one negotiator

Some European leaders sought a single superhero negotiator to handle talks with Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, secure a fair peace deal for Ukraine, and protect European security.

Zelenskyy pushed for one person

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Europe should identify within days who would take its place in talks. He preferred one person and had a preference, though would not reveal the name.

The EU chose a team instead

At a summit in Dublin on Friday, EU leaders decided the E5 made up of Germany, France, Poland, Italy and the U.K., plus European Commission and Council officials, would work forward as a team.

Talks are still technical

Current negotiations in Abu Dhabi are technical discussions between senior officials. Putin and Zelenskyy are not involved. Russia sent a Kremlin aide and Ukraine tasked its intelligence chief.

Leadership comes later

If officials make progress toward a deal, leaders will want to get involved. Leaders will ultimately sign any peace agreements that follow, with no limit on how many EU presidents or prime ministers could join.

Europe's structural problem

Europe has too many stakeholders with distinct interests. The Commission cannot negotiate security architecture, which is for NATO and national capitals. But NATO cannot negotiate EU sanctions or Ukraine's accession.

Europe is not a superstate

One EU diplomat explained: Europe has not found one person because Europe is not a superstate. Different countries must promise troops, offer financing, and represent distinct interests.

“The reason why Europe hasn't found one person who can represent the whole of Europe is that Europe is not a superstate.”

Russia wants security talks

Russia's top negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said Europe's security framework was the main topic in Abu Dhabi. He said the security system after Yalta and Potsdam is working poorly.

The sequencing question

The critical issue is when Europe should discuss Russia's demand to overhaul regional security. This is potentially existential for European countries and officials are weighing positions carefully.

Officials disagree on timing

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said no discussion of wider European security should happen until after a peace deal is finalized. But EU officials in Abu Dhabi signaled readiness for parallel tracks.

Putin's consent is uncertain

U.S. envoys said Thursday night that Putin had consented to letting Europe join the talks. But the Kremlin called this into question on Friday, leaving Europe's role potentially moot.

Kushner's assessment

Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior envoy, said finding one European negotiator would be a bigger achievement than getting Russia to include Europe in the negotiation.

“If Europe could identify one person to speak on their behalf, that would be a bigger achievement than getting the Russians to include them in the negotiation.”