Risk versus uncertainty

In economics, risk can be calculated and managed because the rules are known. Uncertainty arises when the rules themselves keep changing, making decisions impossible to plan.

Pharma's calculated gamble

Developing a new medicine takes ten to fifteen years and billions of euros, with over ninety percent failure rates. The pharmaceutical industry accepts this risk as part of its innovation-focused business model.

Germany's mixed signals

Germany's coalition agreement promised commitment to the pharmaceutical sector, but legislation introduced artificial price caps and forced discounts, contradicting those promises and undermining industry confidence.

“Wer Zukunftsversprechen formuliert, im Alltag der Gesetzgebung aber vor allem den Rotstift an Innovation und Fortschritt ansetzt, konterkariert jegliche Industriepolitik und erstickt Vertrauen im Keim”

Capital flows to friendlier markets

The USA holds over fifty percent of the global pharmaceutical market while Germany accounts for only four to five percent. Risk capital is globally mobile and flows to markets with innovation-friendly conditions.

Europe's research decline

Europe's share of global pharmaceutical research has fallen from over forty percent to nearly thirty percent in recent decades. Clinical trial participation halved to nine percent within a decade.

Germany loses innovation ranking

Germany has fallen out of the top ten most innovative economies in the world for the first time, according to the Global Innovation Index of the WIPO.

Patients miss new medicines

Every third medicine newly approved in the USA no longer reaches patients in Germany. Two thirds of these are therapies with recognised high innovation status, alarming for medical supply.

Proposed location clause solution

An expert commission proposed linking manufacturer discounts to a location clause, exempting companies investing in Germany from some additional burdens introduced by the GKV-Beitragssatzstabilisierungsgesetz.

Efficiency gains possible

Modern diagnostics, digital processes and innovative therapies could free over forty billion euros annually within the healthcare system, plus indirect benefits to economy, growth and prosperity.

Law needed to signal commitment

Billion-euro investment decisions follow reliable actions, not commission papers. Germany must turn the location clause proposal into effective, unbureaucratic law to demonstrate political commitment to pharmaceutical strategy.

“milliardenschwere Investitionsentscheidungen in die Zukunft Deutschlands folgen keinen Kommissionspapieren, sondern verlässlichen Taten”