From POLITICO · · 2m
How wars reshape global trade routes
When the Strait of Hormuz closed in 2026, it exposed how vulnerable the world's energy and trade networks had become to conflict.
In brief
When the Strait of Hormuz closed in 2026, it exposed how vulnerable the world's energy and trade networks had become to conflict. A US-Israel-Iran war in 2026 shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil exports to a tenth of normal flows and forcing countries to build alternative trade routes and stockpile reserves…
Trade became a weapon
Governments once saw global trade as neutral ground that made countries more secure. Now they use tariffs and export controls as tools of power, turning interdependence into a double-edged sword.
Narrow waterways hold world trade hostage
The Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal and bab el-Mandeb Strait are chokepoints where disruption can halt global commerce. In 2023, Red Sea attacks forced containers around Africa, raising insurance and fuel costs.
War closes the Strait of Hormuz
On February 28, 2026, as the US-Israel-Iran war started, the Iran Revolutionary Guard shut the Strait of Hormuz to control oil exports from the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Oil exports collapse within weeks
Within two weeks, the International Energy Agency reported that exports through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to a tenth of normal flows. Asian importers took the worst hit, highly dependent on Gulf crude.
“exports through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to a tenth of normal flows”
Disruption spreads beyond oil
Urea fertilizers also flow through the strait. Supply disruption led to higher food prices globally. The damage rippled through multiple markets, not just energy.
Gulf states build alternative routes
The UAE created the Habshan-Fujeirah pipeline, started in 2008 and finished in 2012, to export oil without using the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf countries demonstrated resilience by finding alternatives.
Three strategies to secure trade
Countries can spread risk through land routes like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Friend-shoring moves supply chains to allies. Stockpiling provides time for diplomacy. In March 2026, the IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves.
Global costs rise for fuel and food
The crisis affects everyday experiences worldwide through shifting costs for fuel, farming and food supplies. Lasting stability in the post-conflict Middle East requires departing from past patterns of emergency reaction.
At a glance
A US-Israel-Iran war in 2026 shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil exports to a tenth of normal flows and forcing countries to build alternative trade routes and stockpile reserves.
