Kulbergs heads to the polls

Latvia's populist Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs faces his first electoral test Saturday. His United List party polls around twenty percent, but coalition partners may struggle to reach the five percent threshold.

The coalition problem

If Kulbergs' centrist allies New Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers fail to reach five percent, he may need to work with Ainārs Šlesers, a right-wing veteran who opposed restrictive tariffs on Russia.

Kulbergs took office in May

Kulbergs became Prime Minister in May after his predecessor Evika Siliņa faced backlash over stray Ukrainian drone strikes. He aims to keep Latvia among the EU's Russia hawks.

Latvia blocks Russian delisting

Last week, France, Luxembourg and Slovakia pushed to delist two Russian billionaires from EU sanctions. Latvia was the last holdout, with Kulbergs filming social media vlogs opposing the move.

Partial victory on sanctions

Despite the billionaires being delisted, the overall sanctions regime with almost three thousand listings is now locked in for three years. Latvia also agreed to negotiate military cooperation with France.

New Unity's struggle

Kulbergs' center-right partner New Unity is struggling to cross the five percent threshold. The party was home to many Latvian prime ministers, including current European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

Šlesers and Russian trade

Ainārs Šlesers, a businessman with influence over the Port of Riga, has captured part of the Russian-speaking vote. After Kulbergs imposed three hundred percent tariffs on transited Russian grain, Šlesers said such transit should be allowed.

Kulbergs rules out Šlesers

Kulbergs dismissed working with Šlesers as speculation, telling POLITICO in early September as it is given now no. But political scientist Una Bergmane sees a clear scenario where Šlesers could end up in government if coalition talks fail.

“as it is given now: no”