Sánchez holds the centre-left together

Pedro Sánchez is the only Socialist-aligned leader running a large EU country. Spain's lawmakers form the Socialists and Democrats' largest national delegation in the European Parliament.

Polls point to a centre-right victory

Polls suggest Spain will vote in an administration led by the centre-right People's Party, which would likely partner with the far-right Vox party.

Sánchez balances Council decisions

When Sánchez strikes a Council deal, Spanish MEPs can usually carry his position through the group, even over internal opposition. He provides a centre-left counterweight to decisions dominated by the centre-right.

Losing Sánchez weakens the Socialists

A change of government in Madrid would disrupt the arrangement. René Repasi, head of Germany's SPD delegation, said there might be a temptation to look more critically at Council positions without a Socialist prime minister.

“There might be a temptation to look more critically at Council positions if there is no [longer] a Socialist prime minister of a large country.”

The governing coalition would fracture

Sánchez helps balance decisions at the leaders' table. His absence would unsettle the informal alliance of the Socialists and Democrats, liberals and the European People's Party that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen relies on to pass legislation.

Progressives would lose influence

If guidelines from the leaders' table become more conservative, it will be less appealing for progressives to feel part of the governing majority. The Socialists already have less representation in national governments and fewer commissioners.

“If what comes out of the leaders' table, and the guidelines it gives the Commission, becomes more conservative, it will be less appealing for progressives to feel part of that governing majority.”

The centre-left would have no leverage

Without a heavyweight prime minister from a large EU country to keep the Socialists in line, von der Leyen would face greater pressure to make concessions to lawmakers frustrated by the centre-right's votes with the far-right.

The Socialists would stop compromising

The Socialists would have fewer incentives to compromise without Sánchez's presence, because the group would have less responsibility for maintaining stability in EU institutions. A tougher line would be easier if the European People's Party continues striking deals with the far-right.

Budget talks will become turbulent

The election is weighing on talks over the EU's next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework. A Commission official warned that Spain risks dragging its feet during already strained negotiations, making the talks more turbulent.

“It's not going to do any good for the MFF.”

The EPP backs the opposition leader

European People's Party leader Manfred Weber declined to comment on what a Sánchez defeat could mean for the Socialists' influence in Brussels, but voiced support for Spain's opposition leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

“At a time when vision and reform are needed more than ever, the EPP is proud to stand firmly behind Alberto Núñez Feijóo.”