From PolitiFact · Madison Czopek · · 3m
Russian lab worker's death poses low pandemic risk
A woman at a Siberian plague research institute died of pneumonia in October. Experts say the risk of a pandemic is very low, but Russia's secrecy raises concerns.
In brief
A woman at a Siberian plague research institute died of pneumonia in October. Experts say the risk of a pandemic is very low, but Russia's secrecy raises concerns. A Russian lab worker died of pneumonia on October second at an anti-plague research institute in Siberia. Experts say pandemic risk is low, but Russia's…
Lab worker dies in Siberia

A woman working at an anti-plague research lab in Siberia died on October two. A local official initially reported she died possibly from the plague after hospitalization with severe pneumonia.
Cause remains unconfirmed
The World Health Organization confirmed the woman died after hospitalization with severe pneumonia, but the exact pathogen that caused her illness has not been announced or independently verified.
Russia's response seems excessive
Russia reported no recent plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast, yet authorities put two hundred contacts under observation, quarantined a hospital, and flew its top disease control leader to Irkutsk.
Response doesn't match the story
Dr. Amesh Adalja of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said the response is not how you would handle ordinary pneumonia or standard plague, which has been curable with cheap antibiotics for decades.
“That is not how you respond to garden-variety pneumonia, and it isn't really how you'd respond to ordinary plague either, which has been curable with cheap antibiotics for decades.”
No signs of rapid spread
Adalja said pandemic potential shows up as a growing chain of human-to-human transmission, and that is not what we are seeing. No cluster of severe illness developed among nearly two hundred people under observation.
“Pandemic potential shows up as a growing chain of human-to-human transmission, and that is not what we're seeing.”
Experts want more information
Hayley Anne Severance, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Threat Initiative's global biological policy and programs, said she needed more information before providing a global health risk assessment.
“I am still in 'wait-and-see' mode.”
Ten days, no secondary cases
About ten days after the researcher's death, there have been no secondary cases confirmed in connection with the lab worker's death. If this were fast-spreading, the window to see it has basically passed.
Pneumonic plague basics
Pneumonic plague occurs when someone inhales respiratory droplets containing the bacteria Yersinia pestis. It can be treated with antibiotics. Without prompt treatment, it has a nearly one hundred percent case-fatality rate.
Person-to-person spread is limited
Pneumonic plague is the only plague that can spread person to person, usually with prolonged contact.
WHO assesses risk as very low
World Health Organization officials said the illness presents a very low risk to people outside of Russia based on available information. But more answers are needed about what actually caused the death.
Experts worry about transparency
Dr. Amesh Adalja said a trained worker inside a plague research institute died of something still unexplained, and experts are relying on the word of a government with a documented history of concealment on biosecurity.
“A trained worker inside a plague research institute died of something still unexplained, and we're relying on the word of a government with a documented history of concealment on biosecurity.”
Cause identification seems unlikely
Ian Jones, a virology professor at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said it was almost unbelievable that scientists had not identified the cause of the lab worker's pneumonia given modern testing capabilities.
What matters most
A Russian lab worker died of pneumonia on October second at an anti-plague research institute in Siberia. Experts say pandemic risk is low, but Russia's lack of transparency about the cause is concerning.


