From Premium Times Nigeria · Mariya Shuaibu Suleiman · · 3m
Nigerian Govt Responds to Fitch Credit Rating Upgrade
Nigerian government says Fitch upgraded credit outlook to positive after economic reforms boost reserves and inflation.
In brief
Nigerian government says Fitch upgraded credit outlook to positive after economic reforms boost reserves and inflation. Nigerian government says Fitch Ratings revised Nigeria's credit outlook from Stable to Positive due to increased foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and economic reforms. Originally reported…
Fitch revises Nigeria's credit outlook
Fitch Ratings revised Nigeria's credit outlook from Stable to Positive on 9 October 2026, retaining the country's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'B'.
Minister of Finance responds
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said Fitch cited increased foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and improved economic prospects as factors supporting the outlook revision.
Foreign exchange reserves rise
Nigeria's gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of 25 September 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
Reserves growth drivers
The minister attributed the increase to more formalised foreign exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher exports, and remittances.
Fitch projects current account surplus
Fitch also projected Nigeria would record a current account surplus equivalent to 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026.
Economic growth forecast
Fitch projected Nigeria's real gross domestic product would grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with 4 per cent in 2025, with growth remaining above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
Q2 2026 economic growth
Nigeria's economy recorded growth of 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.
World Bank growth projection
The World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update projected average annual economic growth of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, identifying services and agriculture among contributors to economic activity.
Inflation forecast
Fitch projected an average rate of 15.4 per cent inflation in 2026, less than half the level recorded in 2024.
August 2026 inflation rate
Nigeria's headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, from 15.43 per cent in July 2026.
Oil production meets OPEC target
Crude oil production met Nigeria's OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day from May 2026.
Domestic refining reduces imports
The minister said increased domestic refining was helping to reduce fuel imports and foreign exchange demand.
Public debt projection
Fitch projected general government debt would average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the median of 56 per cent for countries with a 'B' rating.
Banking sector recapitalisation
Fitch highlighted Nigeria's domestic debt market and banking sector recapitalisation exercise, noting many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
What it means
Nigerian government says Fitch Ratings revised Nigeria's credit outlook from Stable to Positive due to increased foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and economic reforms.
