Le Pen leads by wide margin

Marine Le Pen, the National Rally candidate, would reach thirty-three percent if Édouard Philippe were the centrist bloc's candidate. This represents a two-point rise since September.

Philippe's campaign falters

Édouard Philippe, the former French prime minister and Horizons candidate, is credited with sixteen percent of voting intentions. This is down three points from the previous survey in September.

Mélenchon positions for runoff

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed, would be better placed to join Le Pen in the runoff. He polls at between eighteen point five percent and nineteen point five percent depending on the scenario tested.

Glucksmann gains ground

Raphaël Glucksmann, selected as the social-democratic primary's candidate in October, gained one point to reach thirteen percent. He was chosen earlier in October.

Attal scenario weakens centrists

If Gabriel Attal replaced Philippe as the centrist candidate, he would receive twelve percent of the vote.

Right-wing candidates lag

On the right, Bruno Retailleau of Les Républicains would stand at seven percent. Liberal David Lisnard would take eight percent when included in the projection.

Lisnard's presence reshapes race

David Lisnard's inclusion in the projection would also reduce support for Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour. His presence shifts the dynamics of the right-wing vote.

Poll methodology and limits

The Cluster 17 survey was conducted online from nineteen to twenty October among three thousand people representative of the French population aged eighteen and over.

“As with all opinion polls, the findings are a snapshot of opinion at a given moment and have no predictive value.”