Military leader takes power after protests

Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as president of the Refoundation of Madagascar on seventeen October twenty twenty-five, after weeks of Gen Z protests demanding water, electricity, justice and transparency ousted elected president Andry Rajoelina.

Russia engages immediately with new leader

Just four days after taking office, Randrianirina met the Russian ambassador in Antananarivo. Russia was quick to establish ties with Madagascar's new military-led government.

Russian military intelligence expands rapidly

An investigation by All Eyes On Wagner found the GRU extended its networks in Madagascar through Africa Corps, African Initiative and various other activities in the months after Randrianirina's inauguration.

“what is very striking is the speed with which the GRU has extended its networks in the country”

Russian general arrives with military personnel

On twenty December twenty twenty-five, a flight carrying forty men led by Russian intelligence general Andrey Averyanov landed in Madagascar. Malagasy authorities confirmed that Africa Corps instructors were training the military.

Weapons shipments arrive as donations

Helicopters, tanks, trucks, drones and rifles arrived in multiple shipments presented as donations, with deliveries continuing until April. Averyanov appeared at increasingly senior levels of the military relationship.

Russian influence extends beyond military

African Initiative, a Russian news agency with state links, reached young people through prizes and sporting events. It supported local media in exchange for coverage of Russian-Malagasy relations and organised trips to Moscow.

Russian allies gain influence in government

National Assembly speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko is identified as Moscow's most prominent supporter in Madagascar. Prime Minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison is described as pro-Russian and was involved in negotiations with Sber, Russia's main bank.

Diego-Suarez port offers strategic access

Madagascar's northern port of Diego-Suarez, also known as Antsiranana, sits at the entrance to the Mozambique Channel.

Russia builds financial infrastructure

Russia is setting up the A seven cross-border payments network in Madagascar to allow international transactions outside conventional Western banking channels. This could finance arms deliveries, economic projects and security services.

Promised reforms remain largely unfinished

Political scientist Ketakandriana Rafitoson said the concentration of power, weak checks and balances, impunity and lack of transparency persist. The vocabulary has changed more than the practices since the uprising.

“the vocabulary has changed more than the practices”

Gen Z activists face repression and betrayal

Six Gen Z activists were arrested in April.Young protesters speak of betrayal as practices they fought against reappear.

“They were powerful enough to help bring down a regime, but they have not gained the same influence over decision-making in the transition”

Victims of violence still await justice

Victims of last year's violence remain waiting for justice. While changing political practices built up over decades takes time, Rafitoson said this cannot justify a lack of progress on accountability and institutional reform.

“The victims of last year's violence are still waiting for justice”