From RFI · · 1m 50s
Shipping attacks test Turkey's Black Sea stance
Drone strikes on cargo ships in NATO waters are pushing the alliance to demand Turkey allow warships through the Turkish Straits, reversing years of refusal.
In brief
Drone strikes on cargo ships in NATO waters are pushing the alliance to demand Turkey allow warships through the Turkish Straits, reversing years of refusal. Escalating drone attacks on cargo ships in Bulgarian and Romanian waters have prompted NATO to call an emergency meeting on Black Sea security, but any naval…
Drones strike NATO waters
Thursday saw two chemical tankers hit by drones near a Romanian port. Two similar attacks struck Bulgarian waters in the past week. More than twenty sailors have been killed or remain missing.
War spreads to NATO territory
Yoruk Isik, a maritime analyst who runs the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy, said the attacks show the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is spreading.
“The war has come in full force to the Black Sea now.”
NATO calls emergency meeting
After meeting with Bulgaria and Romania on Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance would continue working with allies and adjust its defence posture as needed.
Turkey holds the key
Any NATO naval deployment depends on Turkey, which controls Black Sea access through the Turkish Straits under the nineteen thirty-six Montreux Convention.
Diplomacy failing, analyst warns
The Turkish government recently tried to broker a ceasefire on commercial shipping without success.Yoruk Isik says this failure, coupled with escalating attacks, is calling into question Ankara's reliance on diplomacy alone.
“Either they're going to have a breakthrough and the Kremlin is going to de-escalate, or Ankara is going to accept the reality that there needs to be a more credible force here.”
Turkey fears Russian retaliation
International relations expert Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University says Turkey fears escalation and views NATO ships as provocation.
“I do not think the government would dare.”
Putin may challenge Turkey's control
Retired Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp warns that if Russia wins the war, Putin will likely challenge Turkey's control of the Straits.
“If he were to win the war, there is a very strong risk that he will take the initiative of saying: this is unacceptable and we want to have free passage of warships from now on.”
Turkey caught between rivals
Ankara now walks a tightrope between Moscow and NATO to avoid a resurrection of historical rivalries over the Turkish Straits.
The big picture
Escalating drone attacks on cargo ships in Bulgarian and Romanian waters have prompted NATO to call an emergency meeting on Black Sea security, but any naval response depends on Turkey lifting its ban on warships entering the sea.
