Five starts, zero verdicts

Some Mariners fans have already soured on Kade Anderson after five big league starts. That sample is barely enough to learn a pitcher's pregame routine.

“Five starts are barely enough to learn a pitcher's pregame routine.”

The ugly night in Anaheim

On Sept. 14 the Angels hit Anderson for five earned runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out five and walked nobody, but the contact piled up fast.

Where the ERA sits

Through five starts Anderson has a 5.33 ERA over 25 1/3 innings, with a 1.42 WHIP, 21 strikeouts, eight walks and four homers allowed.

Woo is the closer comp

Bryan Woo's first five starts: 4.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 32 strikeouts and six walks in 22 2/3 innings. Anderson's line looks much more like that than like a disaster.

Miller's impossible opening

Bryce Miller went 31 1/3 innings with a 1.15 ERA, a 0.51 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, three walks and no home runs. That is a fever dream, not a baseline.

“Then there's Miller who delivered a statistical fever dream”

A record nobody repeats

In 2023 Miller became the first pitcher since at least 1901 to throw six-plus innings and allow four or fewer hits in each of his first five appearances.

Then the league corrected him

The Yankees and Rangers hammered Miller for 15 earned runs in seven combined innings across his next two starts. The magic evaporated in about a week.

He turned out fine anyway

The crash didn't erase Miller's future any more than the hot start guaranteed it. The next season he posted a 2.94 ERA over 180 1/3 innings.

Woo's debut was a disaster

Woo gave up six earned runs in two innings in his first outing in Texas. Over his next four starts he allowed five earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.

Development isn't a line

Anyone who locked in an opinion of Woo after that debut missed the pitcher taking shape right behind it. Rookies don't improve on a schedule.

“Rookie development isn't linear, no matter how we try to draw it up.”

The strikeouts fell off a cliff

Anderson punched out 40.5 percent of Double-A hitters. In the majors that rate is 19.6 percent. Woo struck out 32 of his first 96 batters; Anderson has 21 of 107.

The stuff still misses bats

Anderson's 22.0 percent whiff rate beats Miller's 18.5 percent over the same stretch. The problem isn't swing and miss, it's converting it into outs.

He's pitching from behind

Anderson throws a first-pitch strike 60.7 percent of the time. Miller and Woo were both near 66 percent, and Anderson has no elite velo or spin to bail him out.

The question that matters

Forget the ERA. Can Anderson sequence his way into two-strike counts and finish them, or did he arrive without a real put-away pitch?

“Can Anderson improve his sequencing and turn scattered whiffs into completed strikeouts”

A four-pitch blueprint

Anderson throws a four-seamer 41.5 percent of the time, a slider 25.6, a changeup 17.8 and a curveball 15.1. Miller and Woo leaned on fastballs about 70 to 77 percent.

Deception over velocity

Anderson is a lefty sitting around 93.6 mph. He needs hitters guessing at speeds, shapes and locations, and command is what will unlock that.

Gilbert is the model

In 2024 Logan Gilbert led with his slider at 32.0 percent and threw his four-seamer 30.7. That spread produced a 3.23 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 208 2/3 innings.

Even the good ones adapt

Woo's four-seamer is getting hit harder in 2026, and Miller has cut his to 40 percent while pushing his splitter to 24.4 as his spin has dipped.

One fastball shape

Hitters are batting .342 off Anderson's four-seamer. Woo, Kirby, Hancock, Miller and Gilbert all pair theirs with a sinker or cutter. Anderson is the lone outlier.

“Anderson is the outlier among the Mariners' homegrown starters.”

That's an offseason project

A sinker or a cutter could make the same velocity far less predictable. September is no time for a new grip, but the winter is, and a 22-year-old has earned that patience.

“Writing off a 22-year-old after five starts is even less defensible.”