From Slate Magazine · Jim Newell · · 2m
Trump says he's on the ballot. He might be right
Democrats cheered when Trump put himself at the center of the midterms, but the move solves the GOP's biggest problem.
In brief
Democrats cheered when Trump put himself at the center of the midterms, but the move solves the GOP's biggest problem. Trump centering himself is a turnout play, not a gift to Democrats: the GOP's real danger is MAGA voters staying home. Originally reported by Slate Magazine.
Trump puts himself on the ballot
At the first-ever GOP midterm convention, Trump told the crowd to pretend he was running. During a mock pledge, he warned them they would "go to hell" if they did not vote.
“I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot.”
Democrats treated it as a gift
The party wants these midterms to be a referendum on a president with an atrocious approval rating. Trump volunteering for that role looked like a free win.
Not all downside
The celebration is premature. Putting Trump at the center carries real upside for Republicans that Democrats are waving away too quickly.
“But we're not willing to say that Trump's strategy is all downside for Republicans.”
He was never going in a box
Republicans had no option to hide him. Trump forced the RNC to hold a midterm convention that had never existed before, purely to celebrate himself.
The real catastrophe scenario
Bad midterms become catastrophic ones only if MAGA voters stay home. That, not persuasion, is the outcome the GOP has to prevent.
The enthusiasm gap is the problem
Poll after poll shows Republicans trailing on enthusiasm. Democratic-leaning voters already know Trump is on the ballot; Republican voters are the ones who need reminding.
It matters in Maine and Texas
Closing the gap protects Senate seats in Alaska, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. Susan Collins needs rural Maine MAGA turnout as much as Ken Paxton needs it in Texas.
Not a scalpel guy
Strategists would rather aim Trump at races where he helps. Instead he is pressing the only button he has, at full force, and crowding out subtler persuasion.
“let's get my people out there in force”
Congress notices the AI panic
A departing Anthropic employee said neither his former employer nor OpenAI is acting responsibly, and that builders believe AI could kill everyone this decade. The thread went viral.
“We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans!”
Even Ted Cruz shifted
House and Senate Democrats floated select committees on AI. Cruz, who spent the Congress trying to block state AI rules, now calls some risks dangerous and is drafting a bio and nuclear bill.
“AI is advancing at an extraordinary pace, and some of the risks are dangerous and frightening”
The $5,000 bribe
Trump promised every adult a $5,000 check if the GOP holds Congress, surprising his own members. There is no tariff windfall to pay for it, and another trillion in stimulus would push inflation up.
“Mothers, don't let your sons grow up to be populists.”
The main idea
Trump centering himself is a turnout play, not a gift to Democrats: the GOP's real danger is MAGA voters staying home.
