From TIME · Callum Sutherland · · 2m
Carney Warns U.S. Is Trying to 'Break' Canada as Trump Revives '51st State' Threat
Carney warns U.S. efforts to break Canada amid Trump's '51st state' annexation threat.
In brief
Carney warns U.S. efforts to break Canada amid Trump's '51st state' annexation threat. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warns U.S. is trying to break Canada as Trump threatens to annex it, urging Albertans to reject a separatist referendum. Originally reported by TIME.
Carney warns U.S. threatens Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned the United States is trying to sow discord as he urged Albertans not to vote for a separation referendum.
“the stakes are high. this referendum, it comes at the worst possible time. the world has become more dangerous and divided”
Trump revives '51st state' threat
U.S. President Donald Trump told a rally in Arizona he will 'end up being the 51st state, because it's the only way it works' and accused Canada of treating the U.S. 'very badly'.
“it's a whole different ballgame now [that] trump is in town”
Trade war intensifies
The U.S. and Canada remain in a contentious trade standoff after negotiations collapsed in August, with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs taking effect last month.
“the trade tussle comes after months of trump repeatedly threatening canada’s sovereignty”
Carney’s 'Canada Strong' strategy
Carney promoted his 'Canada Strong' strategy to unite Canadians by choosing Canadian products over those made in the U.S. to counter economic pressure.
“i think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk”
Alberta referendum vote
As of Oct. 11, 75% of Albertans would vote to remain part of Canada according to polling by 338Canada, but separatist movements threaten unity.
“the world has become more dangerous and divided”
Quebec separatist movement
The Parti Québécois won Quebec's provincial election earlier this month, with incoming Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon vowing not to hold a referendum on independence while Trump is in office.
“it's a whole different ballgame now [that] trump is in town”
Trump’s economic threats
Experts say Trump has weaponized market access to the U.S., with Canada’s largest trading partner imposing economic pressure through tariffs and threats.
“he has weaponized market access to the u.s.”
Trade data shows decline
Trade between the U.S. and Canada dropped 4.6% from 2024 to 2025, with $872.3 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border annually.
“trade between the two was down 4.6% from 2024 to 2025”
Carney’s approval rises
Carney’s approval rating increased to 62% on Oct. 15, up from 56% in mid-July, as his resistance to U.S. economic pressure gained support.
“on oct. 15, it stood at 62% compared to 56% in mid-july”
Canada strengthens EU ties
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the EU’s first 'associate member' to diversify trade and security away from the U.S.
“canada and the european union can anchor our ground to hold our values while forming a protective canopy under which our citizens can thrive”
China trade deal
Carney announced a new strategic partnership with China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade, cutting tariffs on Chinese electric cars in exchange for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products.
“carney agreed to cut his country’s 100% tariff on chinese electric cars in return for lower tariffs on canadian farm products”
Public support for unity
49% of Canadians support joining the EU, and 54% support stronger trade ties with China, reflecting growing unity against U.S. economic pressures.
“in almost every province, the proportion of residents who are very attached to canada is greater than the proportion who are very attached to their province”
The bottom line
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warns U.S. is trying to break Canada as Trump threatens to annex it, urging Albertans to reject a separatist referendum.
