South Carolina's Republican streak faces a test

South Carolinians have elected Republican senators in every election cycle in the twenty-first century. But recent polls show GOP Sen. Darline Graham facing a tough fight against Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews.

The race tightens unexpectedly

Polling by the New York Times slash Siena found likely voters in South Carolina essentially evenly split between Darline Graham and Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won the Democratic primary in June.

Election forecasters shift their outlook

In August, the Cook Political Report rated the race as Solid Republican. By October twentieth, it had shifted to Lean Republican, indicating Democrats now have a genuine chance to win.

Republicans struggle nationwide

The South Carolina race reflects a broader national trend. Most generic ballot polls show voters more likely to back Democrats than Republicans in this midterm election cycle.

Trump's approval rating at historic low

President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low. The last time a President's approval rating fell to a comparable level heading into the midterms was in nineteen forty-six, when Harry Truman was…

Economy and Iran war fuel discontent

Polling shows the economy and the war in Iran are significant contributors to public dissatisfaction with the President and his Administration, hurting Republicans across the country.

Lindsey Graham's death reshapes the race

Lindsey Graham, who held his seat since two thousand three, died in July. He had won the Republican primary in June by a nearly twenty-eight-point margin and was widely expected to win the general election.

Darline Graham appointed, then runs for full term

Darline Graham was appointed by the state governor to finish her brother's term. Although she is technically running as an incumbent, she has been in the upper chamber for only a few months.

Republican primary fractures the party

No candidate secured a majority in the August primary, forcing a runoff between Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman. Darline Graham won by less than a five-point margin, creating significant fracture within the Republican party.

Norman refuses to campaign for Graham

Rep. Ralph Norman has said he has no plans to join the Senator's campaign, though he intends to vote for her. Some of his most ardent supporters have discussed a write-in campaign for Norman.

Graham's inexperience becomes a liability

Before her appointment, Darline Graham had never held elected office. In an August debate, she said I'm not that informed on national security when asked about Taiwan and the South China Sea.

“I'm not that informed on national security”

Andrews emerges as a strong challenger

Dr. Annie Andrews is a great fundraiser who has spread strong campaign messaging and generated excitement across the state. Two former South Carolina governors, Republican David Beasley and Democrat Jim Hodges, endorsed her.

Election Day will test Republican turnout

A critical question is whether Norman's supporters will turn out to vote and, if so, whether they will cast ballots for Darline Graham or someone else on Election Day on Tuesday.

Democrats could achieve historic performance

South Carolina still leans Republican, but this race will likely be much closer than expected.