From TIME · Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna · · 1m 50s
Forecasters split on 12 House races
A TIME analysis finds 12 congressional contests where election forecasters disagree on which party will win.
In brief
A TIME analysis finds 12 congressional contests where election forecasters disagree on which party will win. TIME found twelve House races where ten major forecasters disagree on the likely winner, mostly rating them as toss-ups or leaning different ways. Originally reported by TIME.
Most forecasters agree, but twelve races split
TIME analysed ratings from ten major forecasters on all four hundred thirty-five House races. Most races show broad agreement, but twelve contests have forecasters favouring different parties.
The twelve contested districts
The races with disagreement are in Alabama's second, Colorado's fifth, Kentucky's sixth, Michigan's tenth, New York's seventeenth, Ohio's seventh, Pennsylvania's first, Texas' fifteenth and thirty-fifth, Virginia's first and fifth, and Wisconsin's first.
Alabama's second: Figures versus Marques
Sabato's Crystal Ball leans toward Democratic incumbent Rep. Shomari Figures, Split Ticket calls it a toss-up, and eight other forecasters favour Republican Rhett Marques.
Colorado's fifth: Killin versus Crank
Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Democratic for Jessica Killin.Fox News Power Rankings and Split Ticket lean Republican for incumbent Rep.Jeff Crank.Decision Desk HQ and The Economist rate it Likely Republican.Five forecasters call it a toss-up.
Ohio's seventh: Miller versus Poindexter
Race to the WH rates this Republican incumbent Rep.Max Miller versus Democrat Brian Poindexter as Tilt Republican.Inside Elections says Tilt Democratic.Sabato's Crystal Ball and Split Ticket say Lean Democratic.Silver Bulletin says Likely Democratic.
Virginia's first: Taylor versus Wittman
Three forecasters lean toward Democrat Shannon Taylor over Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman. Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ, and The Economist rate it Tilt, Lean, and Likely Republican. Four forecasters call it a toss-up.
Most other races show clear consensus
Of the remaining four hundred twenty-three races, two hundred thirteen are unanimously rated in favour of Democrats.One hundred eighty are unanimously rated in favour of Republicans.
“Ratings describe the forecasters' assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes.”
The one thing
TIME found twelve House races where ten major forecasters disagree on the likely winner, mostly rating them as toss-ups or leaning different ways.
