Israel strikes Hezbollah's core

On September tenth, Israel destroyed Hezbollah's underground command center and weapons stores beneath the Ali al-Tahir ridge in southern Lebanon, about ten miles from the Lebanon-Israel border.

Iran's Levant strategy crumbles

The loss deprived Hezbollah of a fortified position and dealt another blow to Iran's most important regional ally, which has lost senior commanders and much of its arsenal over the past two years.

Houthis gain Red Sea ground

In Yemen, the Houthis seized territory along the Red Sea coast, bringing them closer to controlling the approaches to Bab al-Mandab, the passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Assad's fall reshapes the map

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in two thousand twenty-four and Hezbollah's weakening have diminished Tehran's influence in the Levant, yet the wider war has created opportunities elsewhere.

Iran pivots to maritime control

Tehran is losing influence in one arena while acquiring new sources of leverage in another. The Houthis' expanding reach in the Red Sea gives Tehran's partners leverage over a strategic waterway.

Iran's strategic depth strategy fails

In two thousand twenty-four, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran's then Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, declared Iran's strategic depth had stretched to the Mediterranean coast and just to the north of Israel.

“strategic depth”

Esmail Ghaani announces new belt

On June eighth, Esmail Ghaani, commander of the Quds Force, announced a new security belt extending from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab and from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

“new security belt”

Houthis control key Red Sea points

The Houthis' capture of Mokha, a port city on the Red Sea coast, and Perim Island, which lies within Bab al-Mandab, gives them a stronger foothold at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Threat alone raises shipping costs

Although the Houthis claim they are targeting only Saudi-linked vessels, the threat of attack alone has driven up insurance costs and forced shipping companies to choose longer routes.

Iran deepens Houthi ties

The ties between the Houthis and Tehran have deepened since October two thousand twenty-three, and Iranian support has been central to the development of Houthi military capabilities.

Iraq's militias target Saudi pipelines

A recent drone attack launched from Iraq damaged three pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and forced a shutdown, though the pipeline has resumed partial operations.

Saudi Arabia faces multiple threats

For Saudi Arabia, the interaction between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab fronts creates a vulnerability. Riyadh can shift between routes but cannot entirely evade the risk of disruption.

Iran's negotiating position hardens

Recent developments may encourage Iranian leaders to demand more and offer less, believing that mounting economic costs will eventually force Trump to retreat, but such a scenario is far from inevitable.

Gulf states resist Iran's terms

Saudi Arabia resisted an emerging Iran-Oman agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, refusing to attend talks because arrangements would legitimize Iran's claim to control transit in the waterway.

Settlement requires reassurance

A settlement will remain difficult as long as Tehran expects its neighbors to accept lasting uncertainty over their legitimate maritime rights in exchange for relief from the immediate threat of disruption.