Kansas becomes a Senate battleground

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, but Republican Sen. Roger Marshall now faces a close challenge from megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

The race tightens dramatically

An Emerson College and Nexstar Media survey of 750 likely voters showed Hamilton at 45 percent support to Marshall's 43 percent as of September. Marshall won his 2020 general election with 53 percent.

Marshall has the money advantage

Marshall's campaign had reserved two point three million dollars in advertising as of October 2, compared with 590,000 dollars reserved by Hamilton's campaign, according to AdImpact figures.

Trump's endorsement and record

Marshall has been a staunch Trump defender, backing his disproven election fraud claims in 2020 and voting to acquit him during his second impeachment trial in February 2021. Trump gave Marshall his Complete and Total Endorsement in September.

“Complete and Total Endorsement”

Kansas sentiment toward Trump has shifted

President Donald Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but experts say dissatisfaction with the economy, escalating gas prices, and migration raids in the state have turned an obvious outcome into a deadlocked race.

Independent voters could decide the race

About 29 percent of registered Kansas voters are unaffiliated. Hamilton is leading among Independents at 42 percent to Marshall's 27 percent, according to September's Emerson poll.

The race moves from likely to toss up

The Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on September 23, then moved it again to Toss Up on October 6, signaling to voters that the GOP is envisioning a tight contest.

Republicans invest heavily in Kansas

The Republicans' Senate Leadership Fund has reserved 8.2 million dollars for Kansas, according to AdImpact, a figure historically seen in traditional swing states like North Carolina.

Trump policies hurt Marshall's campaign

Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, says Kansas voters blame Trump administration policies for economic issues, pointing to the war with Iran hiking fuel prices, tariffs affecting agriculture and aerospace, and the threat of a trade war with Canada.

Agriculture and ICE raids anger Kansans

Agriculture contributes 62 billion dollars and close to 150,000 jobs to Kansas. Farmers are struggling with high diesel prices at harvest season. ICE raids in September made 104 arrests in southwestern Kansas, and city and state officials including Marshall said they were not notified in advance.

Cattle ranchers withdraw support for Marshall

Trump's plan to lower grocery store beef prices by temporarily lifting or lowering tariffs on foreign beef imports, including Argentinian beef, angered Kansas cattle ranchers. The Kansas Livestock Association's political action committee declined to endorse Marshall this year, having backed his 2016 House campaign and his 2020 Senate campaign.

Hamilton's appeal to undecided voters

Hamilton's charisma, persona as a pastor, and middle-of-the-road politics have allowed him to appeal to undecided voters. Bob Beatty, chair of the political science department at Washburn University, says Hamilton came into the race as a masterful speaker and has been consciously aware of how Democrats win in Kansas.