From TIME · Philip Elliott · · 2m
Polls show a blue wave. Republicans say they're wrong.
As Democrats lead in midterm polls, Republicans argue the surveys undercount their voters while Democrats worry their own voters stay home.
In brief
As Democrats lead in midterm polls, Republicans argue the surveys undercount their voters while Democrats worry their own voters stay home. Republicans claim midterm polls are rigged against them, but historical evidence and current resource allocation suggest both parties believe the surveys are largely accurate…
Republicans claim polls are rigged
House Speaker Mike Johnson says polls use faulty analysis and overcount Democratic voters. GOP leaders argue the surveys underestimate Republican support heading into the midterms.
“I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them. They use faulty analysis.”
Democrats fear their own success
Democrats worry that polling predictions of a blue wave could discourage their voters from showing up on Election Day, giving them permission to stay home.
“We've all been burned.”
The enthusiasm gap is real
About three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting this year is extremely important. Roughly six in ten Republicans say the same, according to Associated Press polling.
Republicans cite past polling errors
In the last three presidential races, election results underestimated Trump's strength heading into Election Day. Republicans emphasize this trend, though similar errors rarely occur in midterm years.
Recent polls show mixed results
Last year's polling in New Jersey's and Virginia's gubernatorial races actually underestimated Democrats' chances. Both states went blue, contradicting the Republican argument about systematic Democratic overcount.
Midterm polls are historically accurate
Polls have been pretty accurate in recent midterm elections. When they've been off, it hasn't always favored Democrats. In 2022, Democrats narrowly outperformed expectations.
Why midterm polls work better
Figuring out who will vote is easier in midterm elections because politics doesn't dominate public attention as heavily. Many voters can't even name their member of Congress.
“SNL isn't opening with a skit on the Nebraska Senate race.”
Both sides act like polls are right
Republicans insist polls underestimate their support, yet their resource allocation suggests otherwise. Republicans pulled funding from North Carolina's Senate race after polls showed Democrat Roy Cooper well ahead of Republican Michael Whatley.
Trump remains a drag on Republicans
President Donald Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his two terms and threatens to drag down most Republicans on the ballot. A CNBC poll shows him at eighty-two percent approval among Republicans.
Democrats must turn out to win
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said over the weekend that Democrats are on the verge of taking back control of the House.But first, Democrats must show up and not treat polling as permission to stay home.
“We're on the verge of taking back control of the House.”
The big picture
Republicans claim midterm polls are rigged against them, but historical evidence and current resource allocation suggest both parties believe the surveys are largely accurate.
