Abbott faces unexpected challenge

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who has led Texas since 2015, is facing a tight race against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative, as the November election approaches.

Polls show Abbott's lead shrinking

Abbott won re-election four years ago by more than ten percentage points. Most polls now show him holding only a small, single-digit lead over Hinojosa.

Fox News poll gives Abbott five-point edge

A Fox News survey conducted between September twenty-fourth and twenty-eighth by Beacon Research and Shaw and Company Research found Abbott led Hinojosa by roughly five percentage points.

New York Times poll shows Hinojosa ahead

A New York Times and Siena University poll conducted between September twenty-first and thirtieth found forty-nine percent of likely Texas voters would back Hinojosa, while forty-six percent would re-elect Abbott.

Experts call situation unusual for Texas

Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, says this is uncommon. It is rather uncommon to see any Democratic candidate leading in anything other than a single outlying poll.

“It's rather uncommon to see any Democratic candidate leading in anything other than a single outlying poll leading up to the election.”

Trump's unpopularity is dragging Republicans down

Experts attribute the race's competitiveness to voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the national Republican Party. Trump's approval rating has hit a new low at roughly thirty-one percent nationwide.

Trump's economy approval even lower

Trump's approval rating for handling the economy is even lower at twenty-six percent, according to Associated Press and NORC polling. In Texas, fifty-one percent hold an unfavorable view of the President.

Texas voters worry about cost of living

Texas voters are concerned about the cost of living and have expressed disapproval of how Trump is handling the economy. Soaring gas prices sparked by the war in Iran particularly affect voters in the geographically sprawling state.

A Democratic win would be historic

If Hinojosa wins, it would be the first time since nineteen ninety that Texas voters elected a Democrat as governor. She has said she would use her veto power to block partisan congressional redistricting efforts.

Abbott has significant financial advantage

Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University, says Abbott has far more campaign resources than Hinojosa and can outspend her on television, radio and digital media by a dramatic margin.

Election outcome hinges on turnout

Joshua Blank says the election will hinge on turnout. If Republicans turn out their voters, they are almost guaranteed of winning. If enough stay home, a Democrat might get elected despite Abbott's advantages.

“If Republicans are able to turn out their voters, they are almost guaranteed of winning the election.”