Trump's one ask

Speaking to reporters in Ireland on Sunday, Trump said Zelenskyy should stop hitting Russian diesel infrastructure, blaming the strikes for a fuel shortage.

“Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia.”

Hit anything but diesel

Trump drew a narrow line: other targets inside Russia are fine, refineries producing diesel are not. It would strip Kyiv of one of its sharpest tools against Moscow.

“Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he's causing a shortage.”

He blames Ukraine, not Iran

The U.S.-Iran war has choked oil distribution since February, but Trump insisted that conflict is not behind the current squeeze.

“This isn't done by the Middle East. This is done by what's happening with Russia and Ukraine.”

Peace talks in the background

The comments follow last week's shuttle diplomacy by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who visited both Russia and Ukraine. Witkoff said he was confident of a good resolution.

Strikes are still landing

Overnight into Sept. 13, Ukraine hit two Russian refineries, including the Slavyansk plant, which Ukraine's General Staff calls one of the largest independent refineries in southern Russia.

Kyiv's logic: follow the money

Zelenskyy has argued the refineries bankroll the invasion, and that striking them is about cutting off Moscow's ability to pay for the war.

“Every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war.”

Losing the best pressure point

Olena Lennon of the University of New Haven says the campaign has put Russia on the back foot, and that dropping it would cost Ukrainian lives.

“Taking away one of Ukraine's most effective pressure points inside Russia... would significantly weaken Ukrainian leverage.”

Russia is genuinely hurting

When the strikes intensified in late 2025, Russia faced a gasoline shortfall of about 20% and imposed export curbs. Refinery runs hit a 24-year low last month.

Central Asia pays the bill

Moscow's export restrictions pushed retail gas prices in Central Asia up by as much as 25% year over year, per the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan turned to China.

The shortage is worldwide

Australia spent A$20 million urging drivers to use less fuel. Brazil cut gasoline taxes for 30 days and subsidized diesel importers by one real per liter.

America's cupboard is bare

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 285.4 million barrels as of Sept. 4, its lowest since 1982, and under half the 638 million it held at the start of 2021.

Hypocritical, says the analyst

Lennon argues that if energy markets are the worry, the bigger culprit is Washington's own war with Iran, not Ukrainian drones.

“If Trump's primary concern is the disruption of global energy markets, then the much larger issue is America's continued war with Iran.”

Hormuz did the real damage

The IEA points to the Middle East as the main shock, calling the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz the largest supply disruption in history. It carried 20% of the world's oil.

“their largest supply disruption in history resulting from the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz”

Prices break records

Brent crude pushed back above $100 a barrel this week for the first time since July, and the average U.S. diesel price topped $6 for the first time ever.

The Houthis grab a chokepoint

On Sept. 10 the Houthis took Yemen's port of Mokha, then Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a route carrying 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026.

A pipeline goes dark

Saudi Arabia shut a major oil pipeline on Sept. 11 after drone strikes launched from Iraq. If it stays down for days, up to 4% of global supply disappears.

The case that it backfired

George Beebe of the Quincy Institute says the strikes never came close to forcing Putin's hand, and invited counterstrikes on Ukraine's grid, ports and railways.

“Ukraine's campaign of deep drone strikes in Russia has backfired, producing far more Russian destruction in Ukraine.”

Ukraine may not be able to comply

Konstantin Sonin of the University of Chicago says Ukraine cannot tell which fuel a plant makes. Hitting only non-diesel targets would mean largely abandoning energy strikes.

“When they strike a refinery, they strike what is vulnerable there.”

Patriots are the real leash

Europe now carries much of the funding, but cannot replace U.S. Patriot interceptors. Whether Washington pressures Putin or Kyiv, Lennon says, could decide the war's outcome.

“Over time, that choice could significantly affect the strategic balance of the war and its outcome.”