Farmers' mood is shifting

Oklahoma farmer Brent Rendel says dissatisfaction with Trump's administration is rising among fellow farmers, traditionally the President's most reliable supporters.

“From my discussions with other farmers, there is a higher level of dissatisfaction with what's going on with the Administration.”

Rural approval is dropping

Trump won sixty-nine percent of the rural vote in twenty twenty-four, but an AP-KFF poll in August found fifty-seven percent of rural voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.

Rural Republicans are wavering

Among rural Republican voters, around twenty-seven percent disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy and were substantially less likely to say they were certain to vote in November.

Cost of living concerns dominate

Three-quarters of rural voters described the cost of living in their communities as fair or poor. A Reuters-Ipsos poll in June put Trump's approval among rural Americans at a new low of fifty percent.

Democrats see an opening

Democrats are polling competitively in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Iowa, and Kansas. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Amy Klobuchar unveiled a bill for America's first-ever fertilizer reserve.

“American farmers are getting crushed from all sides by this Administration.”

Four overlapping pressures

Farmers face Trump's expansion of low-tariff beef imports, rising fertilizer and diesel costs from a global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, and tariffs that increase production costs and provoke retaliation.

Consumers see higher prices

Grocery prices have climbed steadily. In a September AP-NORC poll, sixty-four percent of Americans said Trump has gone too far on imposing new tariffs on other countries.

Ground beef prices surge

The average price of ground beef rose from five dollars fifty-eight per pound in August twenty twenty-four to six dollars ninety-two in August twenty twenty-six, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Beef import scheme backfires

Trump's ninety-day scheme to suspend tariffs on three hundred thousand metric tons of imported beef went into effect September first. The American Farm Bureau Federation found the imports have not lowered consumer prices.

Ranchers feel the pain

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller says ranchers are upset. Calves going to market now bring three hundred to five hundred dollars a head less, while only packers and processors benefit.

“I haven't talked to one rancher that's not upset about it.”

Beef politics in ten states

In Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas, Trump has seen a decline in approval rating between August twenty-first and September twenty-first, according to Civiqs polling.

Fertilizer costs soar

Montana wheat farmer Steve Sheffels says around forty percent of his expenses go to fertilizer.Starter fertilizer cost just under one thousand dollars a ton this fall, up from six hundred dollars a ton last year.

War disrupts natural gas exports

The Iran war has disrupted liquified natural gas exports from Gulf countries. Shipping via the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively suspended through August. Natural gas is key to producing nitrogen-based fertilizers.

Diesel hits record highs

The price of diesel hit record highs in September, sitting at a national average of over six dollars fifty-two per gallon on September twenty-second, according to the American Automobile Association.

Fuel is an inflexible cost

Rendel says his combine uses about two hundred gallons of fuel per day when harvesting soybeans, and that does not change. Fuel is essential for field operations, planting, harvesting, and shipping goods.

“But fuel's not that way. My combine, when I'm harvesting soybeans, uses about two hundred gallons of fuel per day, and that doesn't change.”

Canada retaliates on tariffs

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect last month after negotiations collapsed in August. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney matched Trump's levies on products covering twenty-seven point six billion dollars in imports.

Tariffs cost crop farmers billions

Tariffs on key production inputs imposed roughly two point six billion dollars in additional costs on crop farmers from February twenty twenty-five through July twenty twenty-six, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

Soybeans still face tariffs

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the White House in late September, Beijing agreed to drop tariffs on various U.S. agricultural products. Soybeans were excluded and remain subjected to ten percent tariffs.

Uncertainty makes planning impossible

Sheffels says the repeated policy shifts are disruptive. Farmers cannot make investment decisions when they do not know what the rules will be in six months, let alone five minutes from now.

“The level of uncertainty that we've had to live with is completely unacceptable.”

Midterms hinge on farm vote

With midterms fast approaching, Republicans face a question: will farmer frustration change how some vote, or whether they vote at all. The outcome could reshape traditionally Republican rural strongholds.