From TechCrunch · Kirsten Korosec · · 2m
Aurora targets 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030
The autonomous vehicle company says its ambitious goal is achievable, despite starting 2026 with just 200 trucks.
In brief
The autonomous vehicle company says its ambitious goal is achievable, despite starting 2026 with just 200 trucks. Aurora told investors it will have over thirty thousand self-driving trucks generating five billion dollars in annual revenue by end of twenty thirty, a jump from two hundred trucks and eighty million…
Aurora's bold 2030 target
Aurora told investors it expects more than thirty thousand self-driving trucks on the road generating five billion dollars in annual revenue by end of twenty thirty.
Starting from a small base
The company expects to end twenty twenty-six with just two hundred driverless trucks and an eighty million dollar revenue run rate, making the jump to thirty thousand trucks in four years.
CFO defends the target
CFO David Maday told TechCrunch that thirty thousand trucks is small relative to the overall market, where four major truck manufacturers produce between two hundred fifty thousand and three hundred thousand new trucks annually.
“I don't think it's aspirational. I think we can do it.”
Investors remain unconvinced
Shares have continued to slide since Aurora's annual analyst and investor day on September twenty-third. On Monday, shares closed down twelve point four two percent, to five dollars twenty-nine.
The 2027 acceleration begins
Aurora expects to go from two hundred driverless trucks at end of twenty twenty-six to more than one thousand a year later, marking what CFO Maday calls the big unlock for the company.
Shifting to driver-as-a-service
Aurora will move from owning trucks to a model where customers buy self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee of about eighty-five cents for the self-driving technology and hardware.
Third-generation hardware arrives
At end of twenty twenty-seven, Aurora's third-generation hardware will be mass-produced by partner Aumovio, formerly known as Continental, which will also finance and service the kits for customers.
Expanding across the US
By twenty thirty, Aurora expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental United States, according to CFO Maday.
Robotaxi plans remain on track
Maday said that by twenty twenty-eight, Aurora's cost structures should be outstanding, and the company still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market once gross margins improve.
“Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine.”
Here's the gist
Aurora told investors it will have over thirty thousand self-driving trucks generating five billion dollars in annual revenue by end of twenty thirty, a jump from two hundred trucks and eighty million dollars revenue run rate expected at end of twenty twenty-six.
