From The Banner · Seth Borenstein, Associated Press · · 2m
The hurricane season that never showed up
El Nino is strangling Atlantic storms before they form, and 2026 just broke a record for quiet.
In brief
El Nino is strangling Atlantic storms before they form, and 2026 just broke a record for quiet. A record-quiet Atlantic is El Nino doing its job, not a season-long all clear. The Gulf is still open, and next year looks busy. Originally reported by The Banner.
A record-quiet Atlantic
No Atlantic hurricane has formed in 2026, and none are expected for at least another week. This should be the peak of the season.
“The Atlantic is quiet, record quiet, this hurricane season”
The record it just broke
On Saturday the season set a satellite-era record for going longest without a storm hitting 74 mph. Only five weak, short-lived tropical storms have spun up.
Seven percent of normal
By the measure that combines storm count, strength and duration, Atlantic activity sits at a post-1950 low. It is running at 7% of normal for mid-September.
“We haven't even had anything really even close to a hurricane.”
A triple whammy
Winds decapitate any storm that tries to organize, dry air starves it, and sinking air stomps it flat. All three are classic El Nino fingerprints.
“It's really staggering, just how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could form a tropical cyclone right now”
Wind shear tearing storms apart
Between Africa and the Caribbean, shear runs about 45 mph above what a tropical cyclone can survive. Researchers call that level unheard of.
“Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance”
Warm water is not enough
The world's oceans have been record hot for 100 days, which normally fuels storms. El Nino is overpowering that heat anyway.
The gap that matters
Kerry Emanuel's work says the air-to-water temperature difference drives storms, not water temperature alone. El Nino heated the atmosphere faster than the Atlantic could catch up.
The Pacific is throwing a party
El Nino feeds Pacific storms with moist air and low shear. The eastern Pacific has logged 16 named storms and the central Pacific 20, with Hawaii hit twice.
“It's just a party out there, one right after the other in the eastern Pacific”
Watch the Gulf anyway
Shear has stayed low over the Gulf of Mexico, where storms tend to fire later in the season. 1992 started slow, then delivered Hurricane Andrew.
Next season could roar
As El Nino winds down, the warm Atlantic water will stick around without the shear holding storms back. That raises the odds of a busy 2027.
“I don't think anyone really foresaw it being this quiet. This is quite remarkable.”
The headline
A record-quiet Atlantic is El Nino doing its job, not a season-long all clear. The Gulf is still open, and next year looks busy.
