From The Conversation · Greg Pollock · · 1m 20s
Fuel prices could rise sharply
Oil prices may hit $150+ as Iran conflict disrupts supply chains
In brief
Oil prices may hit $150+ as Iran conflict disrupts supply chains Global oil prices could spike to $150+ per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and reduced supply Originally reported by The Conversation.
Oil prices surge
Oil prices jumped from $65 to over $100 a barrel since February 2026 conflicts began in Iran.
“When the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran, analysts feared prices would soon reach $150 or even $200 a barrel.”
Saudi pipeline attack
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was attacked, halting exports for six to eight weeks.
“Attacks on the pipeline in mid-September that Saudi Arabia blames on Iran-backed militias based in Iraq forced the Saudis to temporarily halt oil shipments through that pipeline.”
Russian diesel shortage
Ukraine drone attacks damaged Russian refineries, reducing diesel supply by 3% globally.
“Ukraine drone attacks have damaged refineries, reducing Russian production of diesel fuel and prompting the country to ban exports of it.”
U.S. diesel crisis
47 U.S. states hit record-high diesel prices at $6.52 per gallon in September 2026.
“In the U.S., 47 states experienced record-high diesel prices on Sept. 22, with the national average reaching $6.52 per gallon.”
Global fuel costs
Americans spent $117 billion more on fuel between March and September 2026 than the same period in 2025.
“Between March 1 and late September, Americans spent an additional $72 billion on gasoline compared to the same period a year ago, as well as $45 billion more on diesel.”
China's role
China reduced oil imports by 50% through electrification of its transport sector.
“China reduced its crude oil imports by nearly 50% between February and June 2026.”
China's oil demand
China's oil imports rose 6.2% in August 2026, signaling potential price spikes.
“China's oil demand is now starting to creep up again, with crude imports rising 6.2% in August 2026 as compared with the previous month.”
Strategic reserves
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 40-year low after releasing 130 million barrels.
“Since the war began, the United States alone has released 130 million barrels, leaving its reserves at a 40-year low.”
Global shortages
15% of French service stations ran out of diesel or gas in early September 2026.
“On Sept. 20, some 15% of French service stations had reportedly run out of either diesel or gas.”
Price spike risk
Oil prices could reach $150+ per barrel if supply disruptions continue.
“Sustained conflict in Iran, itself a major oil producer, continued disruptions of oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz could mean the reemergence of the nightmare scenarios analysts envisioned when the fighting began.”
The bottom line
Global oil prices could spike to $150+ per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and reduced supply
