A record in the making

Forecasters warn the 2026-27 El Niño is likely to be bigger and stronger than any event recorded in at least 150 years.

Wet places dry, dry places flood

Strong El Niños spike global air and ocean temperatures and flip rainfall patterns. Deluges hit normally dry places, drought hits some of the wettest.

Stacked on record heat

This one arrives on top of already high global ocean and air temperatures. August 2026 was the hottest month on record, per Europe's Copernicus climate service.

Ecuador's tuna moved

Fishing crews are catching fewer tuna and sailing farther offshore as the fish follow cooler water. Coral reefs across many areas are on alert for severe bleaching.

Boobies showed up early

In Panama, blue-footed boobies arrived in unusual numbers ahead of schedule, following the sardines and anchovies that fled north from the ocean heat.

“That isn't normal.”

Panama can't plant

Farmers in some regions have been unable to plant. The dry season, normally January to April, is predicted at least a month early, and drinking water is a worry.

Forty years of data, exceeded

A biologist who has monitored Panama's weather for the Smithsonian for nearly 40 years says 2026's heat and drought already beat anything measured there in over a century.

It starts with the wind

Pacific trade winds normally push warm surface water west toward southeast Asia. When those winds weaken or reverse, the warm water sloshes back east, 300 meters deep.

Two hot years ahead

NOAA and other climate authorities expect 2026 and 2027 to rank among the warmest years on record, possibly the hottest.

Oceans at a four-decade high

September 2026 sea surface temperatures were the highest in over four decades. The next three warmest years were 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Every El Niño surprises

Drought in Central America and global temperature spikes are near certain. Other effects vary: the powerful 2015-16 event brought little relief to parched California.

“Do not assume that what usually happens at your location during El Niño will happen this time.”

Three degrees, maybe four

Intensity is measured in the Niño 3.4 region. The monster events of 1982-83 and 2015-16 hit about 2.6 C above average. This one is forecast near 3 C to almost 4 C.

The canal runs on rain

Panama Canal locks lift ships 85 feet using fresh water from Lake Gatun. Drought drops the lake, so the authority is already limiting how many ships pass and how deep they sit.