From The Economic Times · · 1m 20s
El Nino Could Boost US Inflation by 1% in 2027
San Francisco Fed warns El Nino may push US inflation up to 1 percentage point by 2027.
In brief
San Francisco Fed warns El Nino may push US inflation up to 1 percentage point by 2027. San Francisco Fed research suggests El Nino weather pattern could raise US inflation by up to 1 percentage point in 2027. Originally reported by The Economic Times.
El Nino Inflation Risk
San Francisco Fed warns El Nino could push US inflation higher by up to 1 percentage point in 2027.
Current El Nino Impact
The weather pattern may have already lifted US headline prices by 0.3 percentage point between April and July 2026.
2027 Inflation Forecast
El Nino could push prices higher by as much as 1 percentage point in 2027 after initial effects fade by year end.
Fed's Inflation Concerns
The Fed faces inflation above 2% target for over five and a half years with El Nino adding new pressure.
Research Authors
San Francisco Fed researchers Molly Arden, Toby Graf and Brigitte Roth Tran authored the inflation warning.
Supply Chain Risks
El Nino could disrupt global supply chains and interact with fertilizer market issues in unexpected ways.
Fed's Next Steps
The Fed may raise interest rates in December 2026 and 2027 to contain inflation after El Nino impacts.
What to remember
San Francisco Fed research suggests El Nino weather pattern could raise US inflation by up to 1 percentage point in 2027.
