Badenoch steadies the party

In October two thousand twenty-five, Kemi Badenoch became Conservative leader as the party faced defections to Reform UK. A year later at conference in Birmingham, she has unified the party behind her leadership.

Her approval is rising

While the Conservatives continue to struggle in the polls, Badenoch's personal approval rating has been steadily on the rise over the last year. Former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara said there was not a single whisper against the leader at conference.

“There were people we met who had come to the conference for the first time because they're inspired by her leadership.”

She is doing the thinking work

Badenoch and her team have learned from Keir Starmer's experience that opposition is when a party must work out what it stands for. They have done that thinking in spades before making choices in government.

“Opposition is the time when you really have to work out what your party stands for.”

The Right Way pamphlet

Badenoch published The Right Way, a political pamphlet modelled directly from Margaret Thatcher's nineteen seventy-six manifesto The Right Approach. It focuses on reduced spending and taxes, stricter rule of law, personal responsibility, and improved education standards.

“Apply the lessons to the challenges facing Britain today.”

But polls tell a different story

Recent polling shows Labour at thirty percent, Reform UK at twenty-four percent, Conservatives at nineteen percent, Lib Dems at nine percent, and Greens at eight percent. The party is comfortably third despite Badenoch's personal strength.

“Her party is polling now eleven points behind Labour.”

Personal appeal does not equal votes

Focus groups like Badenoch when shown videos of her at Prime Minister's Questions, but when asked if they would vote Conservative, only a fifth of people in the room say yes. Personal popularity has not converted to electoral support.

“When you ask if they'd vote Conservative, only a fifth of the people in the room will say yes.”

The decade-long problem

The Conservatives have struggled to capture a proper majority for over a decade. They were in coalition in two thousand ten, achieved a tiny majority in two thousand fifteen, went to minority in two thousand seventeen, and lost to Keir Starmer in two thousand twenty-four.

Is Thatcherism the answer?

Helen MacNamara questions whether Badenoch's Iron Lady approach is the overhaul the party needs. She argues the electorate has rejected a Conservative-only agenda, and old-fashioned small C right-wing conservatism may not address what voters actually want.

“It's not a ringing endorsement of a Conservative-only agenda.”