From The Motley Fool · Sean Williams · · 1m
Midterm Elections and Trump Market Impact
Midterm elections could boost or hurt Trump-era stock market returns based on historical data.
In brief
Midterm elections could boost or hurt Trump-era stock market returns based on historical data. Historical data shows divided Congress with Trump leads to lower stock returns but still better than alternatives. Originally reported by The Motley Fool.
Trump Bull Market Performance
Wall Street has seen higher average annual returns under Trump than most other presidents over the last 130 years.
Midterm Election Outlook
Republicans hold narrow leads in the House (218 of 435 seats) and Senate (53 of 100 seats) as of October 24.
Prediction Markets
Traders on Polymarket believe there's a 66% chance Democrats will retake both houses of Congress.
Historical Stock Returns
Divided Congress with Republican president produced the worst average annual return of 7.33% from 1926 to 2023.
Potential Benefits
Ideological differences between parties make major legislation unlikely during Trump's second term.
Potential Risks
Government shutdowns could hurt the stock market if Democrats retake Congress.
What to remember
Historical data shows divided Congress with Trump leads to lower stock returns but still better than alternatives.
