Fighting erupts in Ethiopia

Government troops and allied fighters pushed back rebel advances in Ethiopia over the weekend, taking control of Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region, by Monday.

Casualties and humanitarian fears

Weeks of violence stretching from Addis Ababa to Ethiopia's north and east have led to dozens of reported casualties, internet and phone disruptions, and fears of a humanitarian crisis.

A conflict rooted in earlier war

Friction between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government underlay a civil war that began in two thousand twenty, with estimates of as many as six hundred thousand people killed.

Peace deal collapsed

An internationally brokered peace in two thousand twenty-two failed to hold amid various turf wars, paving the way for the fresh violence now unfolding in Ethiopia.

Sudan's war next door

Ethiopia's fighting is shadowed by Sudan's civil war. Abiy's government has reportedly trained troops for the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary organization controlling western Sudan.

Eritrea shifts sides

In earlier fighting, Eritrean soldiers collaborated with Ethiopia. Now Eritrea appears to back Tigrayan rebels, prompting Ethiopia to expel ten Eritrean diplomats and shutter its Embassy in Asmara last week.

Regional powers align against Abiy

Ethiopia's Army chief accused Egypt, Eritrea, and the Sudanese Armed Forces of fomenting the insurgency. Their leaders met in Egypt with Somalia's President, airing shared grievances over Ethiopia's designs on Red Sea access.

Abiy demands sea access

On Monday, Abiy fired back, reiterating his view that Ethiopia must have an outlet to the sea, which it lost when Eritrea gained independence in nineteen ninety-three.

“an outlet to the sea”

Middle Eastern powers compete

Greater powers including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt are players in an arc of conflict spanning Libya to Yemen, fuelled by scrambles for strategic waterways and resources.

Conflicts are converging

Alex Rondos, a former European Union special representative for the region, said the fighting in Ethiopia means we have a fusion, a convergence into something wider and more dangerous.

“means we have a fusion, a convergence into something wider and more dangerous”

International institutions are failing

In Sudan, various groupings of foreign powers have been unable to stop a civil war now in its fourth year, having displaced about a third of its population and left more than two-thirds needing humanitarian relief.

America's engagement has weakened

The Trump Administration's engagement with the Sudanese conflict has been superficial and insufficient. The Biden Administration helped end the Tigray conflict in two thousand twenty-two, but its successor has picked a side in Ethiopia.

“has picked a side”

A power vacuum fuels impunity

Washington was treated as the ultimate traffic cop but is now operationally AWOL, creating a sense of impunity among many governments. Somaliland's President has lobbied the White House for recognition with offers including renaming an airport after President Trump.

“operationally AWOL”