Gray's gamble: when data beats trust

A Red Sox pitcher pulled mid-game sparks a debate about whether baseball has lost something vital to analytics.

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Oct 4, 2026

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Gray's gamble: when data beats trust

A Red Sox pitcher pulled mid-game sparks a debate about whether baseball has lost something vital to analytics.

In brief

A Red Sox pitcher pulled mid-game sparks a debate about whether baseball has lost something vital to analytics. Sonny Gray's removal from a playoff game reignites the tension between data-driven decisions and the human element that defines baseball competition. Originally reported by The New Yorker.

The Oakland A's way

Sonny Gray made his playoff debut in 2013 with the Oakland A's, a team that won ninety-six games despite having the fourth-lowest payroll in baseball. Manager Bob Melvin chose Gray over former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colón based on data analysis.

Gray's dominant debut

Gray threw a hundred and eleven pitches in eight scoreless innings, giving up only four hits and striking out nine. Justin Verlander threw a hundred and seventeen pitches for Detroit and gave up four hits in seven scoreless innings. The A's won in the ninth.

The bullpen revolution

The bullpen revolution

Teams now use openers and reliever platoons to maximize matchups. Late in the two thousand twenty-six season, the Miami Marlins brought starters into games in relief on days when they'd normally have practice. In the A.L. Wild Card Series, the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox both played bullpen games.

The logic behind the shift

The more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the more comfortable he becomes at the plate. Certain pitchers perform better against certain batters. The Tampa Bay Rays popularized aggressive bullpen use and managed repeated success despite a minuscule payroll.

Baseball tries to push back

Before the two thousand twenty season, Major League Baseball required any pitcher brought into a game to face at least three batters and imposed a limit on roster pitchers. Justin Verlander, who hated the trends diminishing starting pitching, suggested requiring starters with fewer than ninety pitches to stay through the seventh inning.

How far the game has shifted

When Verlander won the Cy Young in two thousand eleven, he threw a hundred pitches or more in all thirty-four of his starts. This season, the two locks for the Cy Young, Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees and Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers, threw at least a hundred pitches in a combined total of eight games out of sixty-two starts.

Gray's great season

At thirty-six, Sonny Gray had one of the best seasons of his career in two thousand twenty-six and played a central role in getting the Boston Red Sox to the post-season. He started Game Two of the Wild Card Series between the Sox and the Yankees on Wednesday.

The pull that changed everything

A teammate patting the Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray on the back.

Partway through the fifth inning, Gray had thrown only seventy pitches and given up one run on a solo home run. With two outs and runners on first and third, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy pulled him. Gray walked back to the dugout with his square jaw set in a line of displeasure.

The logic of the switch

Erik Miller came in to replace Gray. Gray had given up a few hits, and the next batter, Cody Bellinger, had already had a couple of threatening at-bats. The Yankees batters were moving through the order for the dreaded third time. The Red Sox bullpen had been the best in the major leagues.

The decision backfires

Cody Bellinger stroked a low slider into right field to put the Yankees up by two, triggering a nine to two rout that sent the Yankees on to the Division Series and the Red Sox out of the playoffs. Tracy explained afterward that there was a plan in place. It just did not work out.

Gray's fury

Gray was furious with the process that got him pulled and with the outcome. He said afterward, I think I'm the best pitcher in the American League going through the order the third time. I think that's a fact. I would have liked to live or die with me in that moment.

“I think I'm the best pitcher in the American League going through the order the third time. I think that's a fact.”

The catcher's perspective

A reporter asked Red Sox catcher Willson Contreras about the decision. He mimed zipping his lips but did not keep his mouth shut entirely. He said, It's not enough when you have talent, or you have data or you have computers telling you what to do. This is baseball, and the data is here to help us.

“It's not enough when you have talent, or you have data or you have computers telling you what to do.”

The data cuts both ways

There were data-oriented factors that might have argued against bringing in Miller. Bellinger was especially good at hitting sliders with runners on base, and Miller depended on his slider. Miller had been rocked in a similar situation the night before, surrendering an immediate home run to Ben Rice.

The Yankees' different choice

The Yankees went in the other direction, guided by data of their own. They carried ten pitchers on their roster against the Red Sox instead of the usual twelve or thirteen. In Game One, manager Aaron Boone left Cam Schlittler on the mound for a hundred and seventeen pitches, the most by any Yankee in more than four years.

The Yankees' rotation strength

Max Fried threw ninety-eight pitches in Game Two. The Yankees have had the best rotation this season and are likely to see some of their starters in relief as the post-season goes on. Aaron Boone said, Starting pitching has been the biggest strength for us throughout the year. It sustained us.

“Starting pitching has been the biggest strength for us throughout the year. It sustained us.”

Misiorowski's heroic season

Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers finished with the best earned-run average in baseball, the most strikeouts, and the lowest average number of base runners allowed per inning. He threw more than a thousand fastballs over a hundred miles per hour, nearly five hundred more than anyone else.

The Brewers' unlikely success

The Milwaukee Brewers finished with the best record in baseball. They are a small-market team whose success has depended on pinpointing market inefficiencies and using new player-development data. They are the sort of team not supposed to exist anymore in the era of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The case for balance

Baseball needs both the decisions grounded in data and the shooting stars. The insights from the data revolution have helped teams win and improved understanding of the game. But the experiences of the humans playing and watching sports should matter too. Otherwise, what's the point?

In short

Sonny Gray's removal from a playoff game reignites the tension between data-driven decisions and the human element that defines baseball competition.

Read the original on The New Yorker

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