Republicans' gerrymandering gamble backfired spectacularly

Trump strategist predicted gerrymandering would win

In May, James Blair, a Trump strategist driving the push for Republican gerrymandering, predicted a sixteen net seat swing to the GOP. He was gloating about the redistricting war.

“"16 net seat swing to GOP."”

Republicans won the redistricting battle

Republicans did gerrymander more seats than Democrats. But they were fighting a marginal skirmish of scant relevance to the overall outcome, not a war that would determine House control.

The tsunami washed away Republican gains

The GOP put up sandbags to stop a rising tide but got hit with a tsunami. Projected Republican gains in Texas depended on retaining strong Latino support. That did not happen.

Florida's four-seat push became a complete wash

Florida Republicans created four good pickup opportunities in the Sunshine State through gerrymandering. The four-seat push looks to be a complete wash, with no gains materializing.

Black Democrats held on comfortably in the South

Two endangered Black Democrats in the South held on comfortably. Don Davis won in North Carolina, where a potential eleven-three GOP map looks set to morph into a ten-four map favoring Democrats.

Democrats are now gloating

On Wednesday, Hakeem Jeffries, the presumptive next Speaker, posed triumphantly next to a poster board showing James Blair's X post predicting Republican gains.

Democrats won as many as fifty-six Senate seats

Democrats won as many as fifty-six seats in the Senate and the largest proportion of the House popular vote since Watergate. These top-line results have commanded the lion's share of attention.

State races will shape future redistricting

Favorable outcomes in gubernatorial and state-legislative races will determine where the redistricting war goes from here, in ways that could have more decisive influence over future elections than Trump's gerrymandering had on this one.

Record number of election-related ballot measures

More than thirty election-related questions were on ballots this year, a record number according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Results paint a picture that should offer hope to Democrats.

Blue tsunami shifted state-level balance of power

At the state level where congressional maps are drawn, the blue tsunami dramatically shifted the balance of power. Red states including Texas and Georgia will soon be partially in blue hands.

Democrats won trifectas in five key states

Democrats won trifectas in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It is far too early to say what this means for the two thousand twenty-eight maps, but some power brokers are already thinking about redraws.

Wisconsin Democrat signals redistricting plans

Greta Neubauer, the Democratic leader in Wisconsin's state Assembly, said her party will consider a congressional redistricting effort, noting that gerrymandered maps favor Republicans to a significant degree.

“"We will be considering a congressional redistricting effort."”

Colorado voters rejected conservative redistricting amendment

Colorado is on course to reject a conservative-backed amendment to the state constitution that would have made it harder for Democrats to redo districts mid-decade.

Maryland cleared path for Democratic redistricting

In Maryland, a successful amendment supported by Governor Wes Moore cleared a previously thorny legal path for Democrats to try and eke out an extra seat, a significant victory.

Missouri voters rejected Republican-drawn map

In Missouri, voters rejected a redrawn map that local Republicans were so eager to implement that they used it for the primaries before it was even legal.

Voters rejected voter ID measures in three states

Arizona, Colorado, and California appear to have rejected voter ID ballot measures. This is notable given that the vast majority of ID-related ballot measures introduced nationally in the past two decades have been approved.

Alaska's ranked-choice voting survived repeal effort

Alaska's unusual electoral system, which allows four candidates to advance to the general election where voters rank them in order of preference, looks set to survive a repeal effort, though more than a quarter of…

Congressional reform now looks likelier

Putting a durable end to the redistricting war would likely require congressional guardrails such as banning the practice between censuses or mandating independent commissions. Before these midterms, reform looked unlikely. It now looks likelier.

Republicans now face prospect of Democratic redraws

Richard L. Hasen, an election-law expert at U.C.L.A., said with Republicans facing the prospect of further mid-decade redistricting from Democrats, there is the smallest opening for some congressional legislation.

“"With Republicans facing the prospect now of further mid-decade redistricting, from Democrats, perhaps there is the smallest opening for some congressional legislation."”