Netanyahu and Eisenkot deadlocked

Benjamin Netanyahu, beset by corruption charges, faces centrist Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief. Less than a week before the election, both remain far from securing a majority in parliament.

Trump breaks tradition to back Netanyahu

On October eighteenth, Donald Trump praised Netanyahu on Truth Social as a great warrior Prime Minister. Trump suggested America would abandon the war against Iran if Netanyahu lost.

“If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”

Racist slur cancels Trump's boost

Right-wing television host Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a monkey, widely viewed as a racist slur against the candidate whose parents emigrated from Morocco. Magal also suggested Eisenkot was controlled by Ashkenazi elites.

“All the Ashkenazi élitists who are managing him stand behind him, telling him what to say.”

Polls barely move despite chaos

Eisenkot's party Yashar has maintained a small lead over Netanyahu's Likud for weeks. Both remain far from securing a majority, leaving smaller parties with disproportionate power in coalition talks.

Two new parties could decide it

Two small parties formed just months ago may decide the election. Both are headed by hawkish politicians and appeal to right-wing voters angry about October seventh but unwilling to join the opposition.

Winter's Amcha Yisrael party

Ofer Winter, a former brigadier general, formed Amcha Yisrael in August. The stern nationalist encouraged voluntary migration of Palestinians from Gaza and represents a new generation of military leaders from Jewish settlements.

Winter's contradiction troubles supporters

Winter entered politics because of October seventh with candidates not in charge that day. But he pledged allegiance to Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of October seventh, confusing his supporters.

“Winter is an enigma. He entered politics because of October 7th, with a slate of candidates who were not in charge on October 7th, but he pledged to go only with the Prime Minister of October 7th.”

Netanyahu tries to force Winter out

As Winter's poll numbers dipped, Netanyahu met with a rabbi close to Winter, hoping to persuade him to drop out. Netanyahu feared Winter might waste right-wing ballots by failing to enter parliament.

“Netanyahu is right to be fearful. He sees a scenario in which Winter brings in two to three per cent and still fails to pass.”

Hendel's Reservists alliance

Yoaz Hendel announced an alliance last month between the New Economic Party and the Reservists, focused on pocketbook issues and mandatory military draft for ultra-Orthodox men. Hendel is more sophisticated and telegenic than Winter.

Hendel targets young reserve soldiers

Hendel served as senior aide to Netanyahu and communications minister under Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett. He now targets reserve-duty soldiers under forty with young families buckling under high cost of living.

“We're the protest vote. We want to convince everyone in the State of Israel not to vote for Netanyahu. I think he is responsible for October 7th.”

Hendel refuses both sides' labels

Hendel does not endorse the opposition motto just not Bibi. He will not join Netanyahu if he stays with ultra-Orthodox parties, nor join Eisenkot if he relies on Arab parties that do not denounce Hamas.

“I am concerned with how to establish a Zionist state. If [Netanyahu] insists on staying with ultra-Orthodox parties, I will not join him.”

Outcome remains unpredictable

If both parties fail to enter parliament, Netanyahu may be unable to continue as Prime Minister.If either succeeds, Eisenkot faces a tougher path to a majority.

New parties reflect voter frustration

The emergence of these parties close to election day indicates a real reckoning with polarized bloc voting. They underscore the outsized importance of military service in a country at war for three years.

“They are both a response to the frustration of many voters with the polarized bloc voting that is common among the parties of yesterday.”

Crucial issues remain unaddressed

A poll shows overwhelming support for investigating October seventh and imposing the draft on ultra-Orthodox men. Three-quarters reject restarting peace talks with Palestinians. On most other issues, the country is split bitterly.

“There's no substantive debate about Israel's security approach, no real maturity to have a genuine discussion about the Palestinians or the war.”