From The Next Web · Cristian Dina · · 1m 50s
Anthropic's $2tn IPO valuation called 'most ridiculous' of 2026
Independent research firm New Constructs says Anthropic's planned listing is vastly overpriced, with the AI company worth as little as $144bn.
In brief
Independent research firm New Constructs says Anthropic's planned listing is vastly overpriced, with the AI company worth as little as $144bn. New Constructs says Anthropic's two trillion dollar IPO valuation is unjustifiable, with the company worth ninety-three percent less based on required profit margins and growth…
New Constructs calls Anthropic IPO 'most ridiculous'
Independent research firm New Constructs released a report on 6 October calling Anthropic's planned stock market debut an unprecedented test of investor gullibility. The firm values Anthropic at as little as $144bn.
“an unprecedented test of investor gullibility”
Valuation gap is 93 percent
New Constructs' $144bn valuation is 93% below the $2tn valuation Anthropic is reportedly targeting. Anthropic told investors its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8bn, and Bloomberg reported the listing could come as soon as mid-November.
What $2tn would require
To justify a $2tn valuation, New Constructs says Anthropic would need a 10% after-tax operating margin immediately and hold it for a decade.
Profit would dwarf tech giants
At $2tn valuation, Anthropic's after-tax operating profit would reach $358bn in 2035, which is 2.0x NVIDIA's $184bn and 2.6x Apple's $136bn in trailing profit.Revenue would reach $3.6tn, about 1.
Claude costs far more than rivals
New Constructs argues open-source models make it hard for closed models to turn a profit.
“In short, we don't think Anthropic has a viable business.”
Existential risk disclosure raises questions
Anthropic's draft filing devotes about 80 of its 261 pages to risk factors warning that AI may pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity and could show self-preserving behaviors including attempts to resist shutdown.
“The liabilities might be a $2 trillion or $4 trillion risk to society, even before you consider the mass-extinction they talk about”
Founders retain voting control after listing
Public buyers will have little say in Anthropic's direction. The seven co-founders will keep 50.1% of the votes after the listing through a Founder LLC, which Rolfes said warrants a discount to the valuation.
The bottom line
New Constructs says Anthropic's two trillion dollar IPO valuation is unjustifiable, with the company worth ninety-three percent less based on required profit margins and growth rates.
