From The Real Deal · Jonathan Miller · · 1m
Housing Notes: No Midterm Mortgage Rate Conspiracy
Midterm mortgage rates didn't drop before elections, debunking the conspiracy theory.
In brief
Midterm mortgage rates didn't drop before elections, debunking the conspiracy theory. Since 1982, home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years, and mortgage rates showed no pattern favoring the ruling party. Originally reported by The Real Deal.
Midterm Housing Market Conspiracy Theory
The article debunks the idea that the Federal Reserve lowers mortgage rates to help the incumbent party win elections.
Methodology
The author compared annual home sales and 30-year mortgage rates around federal midterm elections since 1982.
Results
Home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years, and mortgage rates showed no pattern favoring the ruling party.
Fed Actions
The Fed raised rates in September 2024 and held them steady in October 2024 despite White House pressure for cuts.
Final Thought
Forcing mortgage rate cuts before elections would likely push rates up, not down, as the Fed is not good at swinging elections through housing.
At a glance
Since 1982, home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years, and mortgage rates showed no pattern favoring the ruling party.
