From The Rio Times · Juan Martinez · · 1m 40s
Arabica Coffee Hits One-Month High
Brazilian coffee prices surge to one-month high as real strengthens.
In brief
Brazilian coffee prices surge to one-month high as real strengthens. Arabica coffee futures for December delivery reached US$3.157 per pound, a one-month high, as Brazilian stocks near 27-year low and real strengthens. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Coffee Prices Surge
Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled at US$3.157 per pound in New York on Monday, 19 October, up 3.3% and the highest level in a month.
Weekly Gain
The contract rose 10.10 cents to 315.70 cents from near 285 cents on the morning of 12 October, a gain of about 11% in a week.
Real Strengthens
The Brazilian real firmed about 0.5% to roughly R$5.04 per US$1, cutting what Brazilian growers earn in local currency per dollar sold.
Stocks Near 27-Year Low
ICE-certified arabica stocks are near a 27-year low, with traders worried Brazilian beans may not reach warehouses before the December contract expires.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket predicts 39% coverage of peak severe drought in Minas Gerais, the top coffee state, through 30 April 2027.
US Buyers
The United States was the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee in the first nine months of 2026, with about 3.8 million 60-kilogram bags.
What's Unknown
It is unclear whether the rally will last once the December contract expires and short covering fades.
Why Real Matters
A stronger real means Brazilian growers earn less in local currency for each dollar of coffee sold, so they tend to hold back beans.
Stocks and Drought
El Niño, a weather pattern that can upset harvests, is listed as a risk for future coffee harvests.
The one thing
Arabica coffee futures for December delivery reached US$3.157 per pound, a one-month high, as Brazilian stocks near 27-year low and real strengthens.
