From The Rio Times · Contributing Reporter · · 1m 40s
Argentina Carry Trade Ranks Third at 19%
Argentina's carry trade returns 19.3% in dollars, third among emerging markets.
In brief
Argentina's carry trade returns 19.3% in dollars, third among emerging markets. US investors earn 19.3% from Argentina's carry trade as peso stays steady against dollar. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Argentina Carry Trade
Argentina's carry trade returned 19.3% in dollars so far in 2026, third among emerging-market currencies.
“The carry trade returned 19.3% in dollars so far in 2026”
Why It Matters
US investors see what a steady peso paid in 2026 while visitors find prices rising faster than the exchange rate.
“US investors see what a steady peso paid in 2026”
Key Numbers
Peso interest earned 22%, dollar rose 4%, consumer prices rose 23.6% in 2026.
“Peso interest earned about 22%, the dollar rose about 4% and consumer prices rose 23.6%”
How It Works
Sell dollars, earn interest in pesos, buy dollars back later if peso stays steady.
“A carry trade has three steps: sell dollars, put the pesos into an interest-bearing instrument, and later buy dollars back”
Ranking
Argentina ranks third behind Colombia at 30% and Brazil at 20% among emerging-market currencies.
“Delphos ranks Argentina third among emerging-market currencies, behind Colombia at about 30% and Brazil at about 20%”
Real Terms
Peso gained strength in real terms with a 13.2% fall in the real exchange rate against the dollar.
“Delphos puts the fall in the real exchange rate against the dollar at 13.2%”
Comparison
Return is more than five times US annual inflation and almost three times a top Argentine company's dollar bond yield.
“iProfesional compared the gain with other yields, calling it more than five times US annual inflation”
Central Bank
Central bank's wholesale reference rate rose from 1,459.42 to 1,514.57 per dollar in 2026.
“The central bank's wholesale reference rate was 1,459.42 per dollar on 30 December 2025. By 16 October 2026 it was 1,514.57”
Election Risk
2027 election campaign could pressure peso as investors move into dollar assets.
“Next year looks different, because election uncertainty in 2027 could put pressure on the peso”
Prediction Markets
52.5% chance official peso rate ends 2026 below 1,600 per dollar according to Polymarket.
“Polymarket gives a 52.5% chance that the official peso rate ends 2026 below 1,600 per dollar”
What It Means
US investors earn 19.3% from steady peso while visitors face higher prices due to inflation.
“For US investors, the result shows what a steady peso paid in 2026”
What's Next
Central bank may buy dollars before 2027 election as peso stays calm.
“Still open whether the peso stays calm as the 2027 election campaign approaches”
Still Open
Peso stability and central bank dollar purchases remain uncertain before 2027 election.
“Still open whether the peso stays calm as the 2027 election campaign approaches”
The headline
US investors earn 19.3% from Argentina's carry trade as peso stays steady against dollar.
