From The Rio Times · Iolanda Fonseca · · 1m 40s
Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8%
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2.4 points, inside margin of error.
In brief
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2.4 points, inside margin of error. Brazil's Ipespe poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.2% valid votes versus Lula's 48.8% in the 2026 presidential runoff. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Brazil Election Poll Results
Ipespe's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.2% valid votes against Lula's 48.8% in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.
Poll Margin of Error
The 2.4-point gap sits within a 2.6-point margin of error, making the result a technical tie.
Previous Poll Comparison
The previous Ipespe survey on 10 October showed Flávio at 52.7% and Lula at 47.3%, a 5.4-point gap.
Fieldwork Details
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters nationwide from 13 to 15 October under electoral court registration BR-00223/2026.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 76.4% chance of winning the runoff, with Kalshi at 79%.
Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026, eight days after this poll.
What's Next
The next round of surveys will show if the narrowing continues before the 25 October vote.
Technical Tie Explanation
A 2.4-point gap within the 2.6-point margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
Economic Impact
The winner will set Brazil's course with Washington for the next four years, affecting trade and stocks.
What's Unknown
The raw totals including blank and undecided voters are not yet confirmed by Ipespe.
Runoff Significance
The runoff decides who runs Latin America's largest economy, impacting Brazilian stocks and trade with Washington.
The main idea
Brazil's Ipespe poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.2% valid votes versus Lula's 48.8% in the 2026 presidential runoff.
