From The Rio Times · Rafael Silva Santos · · 1m 20s
Brazil Election Runoff Poll Shows Technical Tie
Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll.
In brief
Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll. Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Final Palver Poll Results
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50% to 49% in Palver's last runoff survey before Brazil's election 2026.
“Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and President Lula 49%, with 1% blank, null or staying home and 0% undecided”
Polling Methodology
Palver interviewed 5,000 voters online from 22 to 24 October with a 2.2 point margin of error.
“Palver interviewed 5,000 voters aged 16 or older across Brazil from 22 to 24 October”
Previous Poll Comparison
Lula gained one point from 48% to 49% in three days, within Palver's margin of error.
“Palver’s previous poll had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 48%, so Lula gained one point”
Rejection Rates
49% of voters reject Lula while 47% reject Flávio in Palver's survey.
“Palver found that 49% of voters reject Lula and 47% reject Flávio”
Technical Tie
The one-point gap is a technical tie within Palver's 2.2 point margin of error.
“The one-point gap is a technical tie”
Gerp Poll Results
Gerp poll shows Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% with a 2 point margin of error.
“Gerp institute, which polled 2,400 voters by phone from 22 to 24 October, gave Flávio 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%”
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio 84% chance of winning runoff while Kalshi shows Lula 99.6%.
“Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 8:01 p.m. ET)”
What It Means for Investors
Brazilian stocks and US-listed shares could see sharp price swings after election results.
“If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean sharp price swings”
Voting Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, 2026.
“Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, the day after this poll was published”
What Is Not Known
No poll can predict how undecided voters will vote on election day.
“No poll can say how many of the voters who say they are undecided or may stay home will vote on Sunday”
In short
Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll.
