From The Rio Times · Richard Mann · · 1m 30s
Brazil Rate Pause Odds Jump to 67%
US traders now bet Brazil's central bank will pause rate cuts in 2026 after Lula's re-election.
In brief
US traders now bet Brazil's central bank will pause rate cuts in 2026 after Lula's re-election. Prediction markets show 67% chance Brazil's central bank will pause interest rate cuts in 2026 following President Lula's re-election. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Prediction Markets Update
US-regulated traders now bet Brazil’s central bank has finished cutting interest rates this year.
Kalshi Odds Jump
Kalshi prices exactly 5 Brazil rate cuts in 2026 at 67%, up 57 points in 24 hours.
Election Result
President Lula won 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Next Rate Decision
Brazil’s rate-setting committee meets on 4 November to decide on interest rates.
Current Rate
Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate is 13.75% a year with a pause expected into 2027.
Economist View
Economist Bruno Corano expects a pause after Lula’s runoff win due to weaker real and inflation.
Market Thin
Only 20,800 contracts traded in 24 hours, making the market thinly traded.
Why Odds Moved
No single trigger reported; traders have not said what drove the price change.
What It Means
A pause would keep borrowing costs high for Brazilian companies with debt.
What Is Unknown
It is not known why the price moved so far or whether Copom will cut on 4 November.
Event Date
Brazil’s central bank meets on 4 November to decide on interest rates.
The headline
Prediction markets show 67% chance Brazil's central bank will pause interest rate cuts in 2026 following President Lula's re-election.
