From The Rio Times · Andrés Morales · · 1m 40s
Brazil Runoff Poll Shows Flávio 1 Point Up
Brazil's presidential runoff poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point as election approaches Sunday.
In brief
Brazil's presidential runoff poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point as election approaches Sunday. Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by one point in Brazil's runoff poll with 45% to 44% support, a technical tie on valid votes. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Brazil Runoff Poll
A new Quaest poll for Globo shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44% for Brazil's election 2026 runoff.
Valid Vote Split
On valid votes, Flávio leads 50.6% to Lula's 49.4%, a technical tie with a one-point margin.
Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error at 95% confidence, so neither candidate is a sure winner.
Previous Poll
A week earlier, Flávio led 46% to Lula's 44%, so his lead shrank from two points to one.
Poll Methodology
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 or older from 17 to 20 October with registration BR-08535/2026.
Approval Rates
46% of Brazilians approve of Lula's government, up one point from 45% a week earlier.
Rejection Rates
47% of voters reject Lula, while 52% reject Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Agenda do Poder.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 78.8% chance of winning and Lula 21.5% as of 21 October, 10:05 a.m. ET.
Election Date
Brazil's presidential runoff occurs on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with Flávio and Lula qualifying after the first round on 4 October.
Market Impact
A tight race can keep Brazilian stock prices swinging until the election count ends on Sunday.
Next Polls
Datafolha plans a new poll on Thursday 22 October, and both institutes will publish final surveys on Saturday 24 October.
The key point
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by one point in Brazil's runoff poll with 45% to 44% support, a technical tie on valid votes.
