From The Rio Times · Contributing Reporter · · 2m
Cuba-US Tensions Explained
US economic pressure and murder charges target Cuba's leadership amid stalled talks.
In brief
US economic pressure and murder charges target Cuba's leadership amid stalled talks. The US is using sanctions, criminal cases and threats of force to push Cuba's government toward change, with no deal yet but prediction markets pricing a US strike on Cuban soil by December at 8.5%. Originally reported by The Rio…
Quick answers
- Will the US Attack?
- No US strike or invasion has happened, and no order has been reported, though US planners have studied military options.
- What is the key takeaway from Cuba-US Tensions Explained?
- The US is using sanctions, criminal cases and threats of force to push Cuba's government toward change, with no deal yet but prediction markets pricing a US strike on Cuban soil by December at 8.5%.
What's Happening
Washington is squeezing Cuba's oil supplies, sanctioning its president and pursuing murder charges against former leader Raúl Castro over a 1996 shootdown.
“The United States is using economic pressure, criminal cases and the threat of force to push Cuba's communist government towards change.”
Key Facts
Since January 2026, Washington has choked Cuba's fuel imports and sanctioned its president and military-run firms.
The Charges
Raúl Castro, 95, faces federal and Florida charges over the 1996 downing of two planes.
Force Status
No US attack has taken place; Trump said in September he expects a deal instead.
Travel Restrictions
Tourism stays banned for Americans, and group 'people-to-people' tours ended on 30 September.
Next Steps
The UN General Assembly votes on its yearly resolution against the US embargo in late October.
Prediction Markets
US strike on Cuban soil by 31 December: 8.5% (Polymarket, 21 October, 10:11 a.m. ET).
Power Index
Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
How the Squeeze Began
US forces captured Venezuela's leader Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026, a long-standing ally of Havana.
Sanctions Timeline
Trump signed Executive Order 14380 on 29 January 2026, declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening oil suppliers with tariffs.
The Charges Explained
On 24 February 1996 Cuban fighter jets shot down two small civilian planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing four men.
US Charges Against Castro
On 20 May 2026 the Justice Department unsealed an indictment charging Castro with conspiracy to kill US nationals and four counts of murder.
Florida's Action
Florida added its own case on 19 October, when Attorney General James Uthmeier announced a state arrest warrant for Castro.
Havana's Response
Díaz-Canel called the Florida warrant a 'pathetic Miami circus' with an electoral motive, and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called it a 'sterile manoeuvre'.
Will the US Attack?
No US strike or invasion has happened, and no order has been reported, though US planners have studied military options.
What's Next
Prediction markets price a US strike on Cuban soil by 31 December at 8.5% and a Cuban government fall at 9.5% by the end of 2026.
The bottom line
The US is using sanctions, criminal cases and threats of force to push Cuba's government toward change, with no deal yet but prediction markets pricing a US strike on Cuban soil by December at 8.5%.
