From The Rio Times · Richard Mann · · 1m 40s
Datafolha Finds 46% Reject Flávio, 45% Lula
Brazilian voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula equally in runoff poll.
In brief
Brazilian voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula equally in runoff poll. 46% of Brazilians reject Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, 45% reject Lula, tied within margin of error. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Datafolha Poll Results
Datafolha found 46% of voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% reject Lula in Brazil's 2026 runoff election.
Rejection Rates Change
Flávio's rejection rose 2 points from 44% a week earlier, while Lula's fell 1 point from 46%.
Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error at 95% confidence, making the rejection rates statistically tied.
Survey Details
Datafolha interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 and older from Tuesday 20 to Thursday 22 October 2026.
Other Rejection Groups
3% reject both candidates and 6% reject neither, so some outlets report 48% for each.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance and Lula 23.5% of winning the runoff.
Runoff Date
Brazil's runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026, three days after the poll was released.
Rejection Meaning
Rejection means voters who say they would not vote for a candidate under any circumstances.
What It Means for Investors
Brazil's currency and stock markets could see sharp price moves based on the runoff result.
What Is Unknown
How rejection splits by region, income, or age is not known, and turnout for rejected voters is unclear.
What Happens Next
Brazil's runoff election will be held on Sunday 25 October 2:00 p.m. ET, with the winner taking office for four years.
The bottom line
46% of Brazilians reject Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, 45% reject Lula, tied within margin of error.
