From The Rio Times · Lucía Martínez · · 1m 30s
Datafolha Poll Shows Flávio 51%, Lula 49% in Brazil Runoff
Brazil's final Datafolha poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in the presidential runoff.
In brief
Brazil's final Datafolha poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in the presidential runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% in Brazil's final Datafolha poll before the October 25 runoff. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Datafolha Poll Release
Datafolha released its final runoff survey on Saturday 24 October at 5:36 p.m. ET.
Final Poll Numbers
Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and Lula 49% in the final Datafolha poll.
Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error from 4,050 interviews conducted 23-24 October.
Previous Poll Comparison
Datafolha's previous poll on 22 October showed Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5%.
TSE Registration
The survey is registered with Brazil's electoral court under TSE registration BR-09540/2026.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi traders give Flávio an 80% chance of winning by at least 1 point and Lula 13%.
Live Election Results
Brazil's runoff election results will be updated live starting Sunday 25 October at 5 p.m. Brasília time.
Economic Impact
The winner will impact Brazilian stocks, the real, and trade relations with Washington.
What This Means
A close race within the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
Why It Matters
The result will determine Brazil's political direction for the next four years.
What Happens Next
The official TSE count will publish results on Sunday 25 October after polling closes.
Here's the gist
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% in Brazil's final Datafolha poll before the October 25 runoff.
