From The Rio Times · Andrés Morales · · 1m 30s
Gerp Poll Widens Flávio Lead to 53% to 47%
Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 53-47 in Brazil's runoff election.
In brief
Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 53-47 in Brazil's runoff election. Gerp poll widens Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula to 53% to 47% for Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Gerp Poll Update
Gerp Mercadologia published a new runoff survey on Tuesday 20 October showing Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula 53% to 47% of valid votes.
Lead Widens
The poll widens Flávio's lead from 52% to 48% on 16 October to 53% to 47% on 20 October, increasing the gap by two points.
Margin of Error
Gerp's survey has a 2 percentage point margin of error based on interviews with 2,400 voters between 15 and 19 October.
Valid Votes
Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots, matching how Brazil's electoral court (TSE) reports results.
Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, with the winner taking office for a four-year term.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket shows Flávio Bolsonaro with a 77.1% chance of winning the runoff and Lula with 22.5% (US$189 million traded).
Margin of Error
The six-point gap lies outside each candidate's 2-point margin of error, meaning the lead is not certain.
What's Next
The next Gerp poll could move the average again before Sunday's runoff vote, as the survey uses a three-day moving average.
What's Unknown
Gerp's TSE registration number, who paid for the survey, and the confidence level remain undisclosed.
The short version
Gerp poll widens Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula to 53% to 47% for Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.
