From The Rio Times · Lucía Martínez · · 1m 40s
PoderData Poll Shows Flávio 52%, Lula 48%
PoderData poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 4 points in Brazil's 2026 runoff election.
In brief
PoderData poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 4 points in Brazil's 2026 runoff election. PoderData's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes versus Lula's 48% in Brazil's presidential runoff. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
New PoderData Poll Published
PoderData, with partner Aya, published a new runoff survey on Monday 19 October 2026 showing Flávio ahead of Lula.
Flávio Leads by 4 Points
Flávio Bolsonaro has 52% of valid votes and Lula has 48%, a 4-point gap with a margin of error of 1.8 points.
Previous Poll Was Tied
The previous PoderData survey, published on Friday 16 October, had both candidates at 50% of valid votes.
Fieldwork Details
PoderData interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone on 16, 17 and 18 October in 695 municipalities across 27 states.
Margin of Error
The survey has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points at 95% confidence and is registered with TSE as BR-02586/2026.
Other Pollsters Show Tighter Race
AtlasIntel reported Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes from 4,998 interviews on 13 to 18 October.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff with US$188 million in total bets.
What This Means for Investors
The gap widening by 4 points in three days shows how quickly the picture can change for investors and trade partners.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets turn real-money bets into live probabilities that move within minutes of new surveys.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how many undecided voters will turn out or which way they will go on 25 October.
What it means
PoderData's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes versus Lula's 48% in Brazil's presidential runoff.
