From The Rio Times · Iolanda Fonseca · · 1m 50s
Quaest Poll Shows Flávio 51%, Lula 49%
Brazil's final election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in valid votes, a technical tie with 2-point margin of error.
In brief
Brazil's final election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in valid votes, a technical tie with 2-point margin of error. Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% valid votes to Lula's 49% in Brazil's runoff election, a technical tie with 2-point margin of error. Originally reported by The Rio…
Quaest Final Runoff Poll
Quaest published its final runoff poll on Saturday 24 October 2026, showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% valid votes to Lula's 49%.
Valid Vote Split
The poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% of valid votes and Lula with 49%, a technical tie within the 2-point margin of error.
Total Vote Breakdown
In total votes, Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% and Lula 45%, with 8% blank or null votes and 1% undecided.
Fieldwork Details
Quaest interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or older on 23 and 24 October 2026 with TSE registration BR-09158/2026.
Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error at 95% confidence, making the 51-49 split a technical tie.
Previous Poll Comparison
Quaest's prior poll on 17 to 20 October showed Flávio at 45% and Lula at 44% in total votes, equivalent to 50.6% to 49.4% valid votes.
Lula's Approval Rating
Lula's approval rating improved above disapproval in the poll, according to CartaCapital and Metrópoles.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff, while Kalshi shows Lula at 99.6%.
What's Next
Brazil's runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October with polls closing at 5 p.m. Brasília time.
What's Unknown
The poll cannot capture late decisions or turnout on Sunday, and does not specify how the 8% blank, null or undecided voters will act.
What it means
Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% valid votes to Lula's 49% in Brazil's runoff election, a technical tie with 2-point margin of error.
