From The Rio Times · Carlos Silva · · 1m 20s
Veritá Poll Shows Flávio Leads Lula by 2 Points
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.1% support versus Lula's 48.9%.
In brief
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.1% support versus Lula's 48.9%. Institute Veritá's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by 2 points in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Poll Release
Institute Veritá released a national runoff survey on Saturday 17 October 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9%.
Valid Votes
The poll counts valid votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, with a 2-point gap between candidates.
Margin of Error
The survey has a 1 percentage point margin of error at 95% confidence with 15,554 interviews across all 27 Brazilian states.
Fieldwork Dates
Interviews ran from Monday 12 to Friday 16 October 2026, a day after Datafolha's poll release.
Datafolha Comparison
Datafolha reported Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% on 15 October, matching Veritá's range.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi predict Flávio Bolsonaro with 76.8% and 79% chance of winning the runoff.
Unknowns
The poll does not include raw totals, so undecided voters and blank ballots remain unknown.
Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Election Context
Flávio Bolsonaro represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL), while Lula represents the left-wing Workers' Party (PT).
The one thing
Institute Veritá's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by 2 points in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.
