Trump's Russia Diesel Deal Fails to Lower Prices

Trump's Russia diesel deal unlikely to cut prices as global supply squeeze persists.

Oct 21, 2026

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Trump's Russia Diesel Deal Fails to Lower Prices

Trump's Russia diesel deal unlikely to cut prices as global supply squeeze persists.

In brief

Trump's Russia diesel deal unlikely to cut prices as global supply squeeze persists. US diesel prices remain above $6 a gallon after Trump's Russia deal, with analysts saying promised volumes too small to ease supply shortages. Originally reported by The Straits Times.

US diesel prices hit record high

US retail diesel prices topped US$6 a gallon in September for the first time ever and have remained above that level since.

Trump's Russia deal unlikely to lower prices

Analysts said the promised volumes are too small to ease the global supply squeeze.

Political risk for Trump

Political risk for Trump

Diesel prices have shot to record highs during the US-Israeli war on Iran, creating a political liability for Trump and his Republican party before the Nov 3 midterm elections.

Russia's export challenges

Russia may struggle to deliver the extra fuel because of weak refining, high freight costs and sanctions.

IEA warns shortages until 2027

The International Energy Agency warned shortages could last until 2027.

Trump's initial shipment plan

Trump's initial shipment plan

Trump said Russia would immediately export 300,000 metric tons, or 2.25 million barrels, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons immediately thereafter.

Analysts' supply estimates

Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, said it would take an additional 400,000 barrels per day of diesel supply to materially ease prices in the current market.

Market impact limited

But the initial shipment of roughly 2.2 million barrels would amount to only about 73,000 bpd if distributed over a month.

In short

US diesel prices remain above $6 a gallon after Trump's Russia deal, with analysts saying promised volumes too small to ease supply shortages.

Read the original on The Straits Times

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